Kosmos Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.84
| KOS Stock | USD 5.83 0.04 0.68% |
Closest to current price Kosmos long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Kosmos |
Kosmos Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 5.84
The tendency of Kosmos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 5.84 or more in 90 days |
| 5.83 | 90 days | 5.84 | about 60.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kosmos Energy to move over $ 5.84 or more in 90 days from now is about 60.61 (This Kosmos Energy probability density function shows the probability of Kosmos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kosmos Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 5.83 and $ 5.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.47 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Kosmos Energy has a beta of -1.1. This indicates Additionally Kosmos Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Kosmos Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kosmos Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kosmos Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kosmos Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kosmos Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kosmos Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kosmos Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kosmos Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kosmos Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -1.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Kosmos Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kosmos Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kosmos Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kosmos Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kosmos Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company has 2.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.58, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Kosmos Energy has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Kosmos Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kosmos Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kosmos Energy sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kosmos to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kosmos Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Kosmos Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 96.0% of Kosmos Energy shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from ndtv.com: Disposition of 244541 shares by Andrew Inglis of Kosmos Energy at 7.91 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Kosmos Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kosmos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kosmos Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kosmos Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 481.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 95.3 M |
Kosmos Energy Technical Analysis
Kosmos Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kosmos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kosmos Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kosmos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kosmos Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Kosmos Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kosmos Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kosmos Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kosmos Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kosmos Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kosmos Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kosmos Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kosmos Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company has 2.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.58, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Kosmos Energy has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Kosmos Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kosmos Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kosmos Energy sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kosmos to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kosmos Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Kosmos Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 96.0% of Kosmos Energy shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from ndtv.com: Disposition of 244541 shares by Andrew Inglis of Kosmos Energy at 7.91 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Kosmos Energy Backtesting, Kosmos Energy Valuation, Kosmos Energy Correlation, Kosmos Energy Hype Analysis, Kosmos Energy Volatility, Kosmos Energy History as well as Kosmos Energy Performance. For more information on how to buy Kosmos Stock please use our How to Invest in Kosmos Energy guide.You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Complementary Tools for Kosmos Stock analysis
When running Kosmos Energy's price analysis, check to measure Kosmos Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kosmos Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Kosmos Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kosmos Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kosmos Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kosmos Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kosmos Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kosmos Energy. If investors know Kosmos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kosmos Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | Earnings Share 0.44 | Revenue Per Share 3.702 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0614 |
The market value of Kosmos Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kosmos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kosmos Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kosmos Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kosmos Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kosmos Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kosmos Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kosmos Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kosmos Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.