Luminar Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.70
| LAZR Stock | USD 1.41 0.02 1.40% |
Closest to current price Luminar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Luminar |
Luminar Technologies Target Price Odds to finish over 20.70
The tendency of Luminar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 20.70 or more in 90 days |
| 1.41 | 90 days | 20.70 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Luminar Technologies to move over $ 20.70 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Luminar Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Luminar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Luminar Technologies price to stay between its current price of $ 1.41 and $ 20.70 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.98 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.55 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Luminar Technologies will likely underperform. Additionally Luminar Technologies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Luminar Technologies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Luminar Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Luminar Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Luminar Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Luminar Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Luminar Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Luminar Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Luminar Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Luminar Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.48 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Luminar Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Luminar Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Luminar Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Luminar Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Luminar Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Luminar Technologies may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Luminar Technologies has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 69.78 M. Net Loss for the year was (571.27 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (60.28 M). | |
| Luminar Technologies currently holds about 553.05 M in cash with (247.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.52, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Luminar Technologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Luminar Technologies Shares Down 4.2 percent - MarketBeat |
Luminar Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Luminar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Luminar Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Luminar Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 389.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 289.8 M |
Luminar Technologies Technical Analysis
Luminar Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Luminar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Luminar Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Luminar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Luminar Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Luminar Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Luminar Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Luminar Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Luminar Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Luminar Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Luminar Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Luminar Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Luminar Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Luminar Technologies may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Luminar Technologies has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 69.78 M. Net Loss for the year was (571.27 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (60.28 M). | |
| Luminar Technologies currently holds about 553.05 M in cash with (247.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.52, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Luminar Technologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Luminar Technologies Shares Down 4.2 percent - MarketBeat |
Additional Tools for Luminar Stock Analysis
When running Luminar Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Luminar Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Luminar Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Luminar Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Luminar Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Luminar Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Luminar Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.