Lipocine Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.01

LPCN -  USA Stock  

USD 1.01  0.04  3.81%

Lipocine's future price is the expected price of Lipocine instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Lipocine performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Sales Ratio is expected to rise to 54.97 this year, although Price to Book Value will most likely fall to 5.02.

Lipocine Price Probability 

 
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Lipocine's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Lipocine. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Lipocine based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Lipocine over a specific time period. For example, 2021-12-17 PUT at $2.5 is a PUT option contract on Lipocine's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2021-12-17. The contract was last traded on 0000-00-00 at 00:00:00 for $1.45 and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.35, and an ask price of $1.6. The implied volatility as of the 5th of December is 459.2391. View All Lipocine options

Closest to current price Lipocine long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Lipocine Backtesting, Lipocine Valuation, Lipocine Correlation, Lipocine Hype Analysis, Lipocine Volatility, Lipocine History as well as Lipocine Performance. Please specify Lipocine time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Lipocine odds to be computed.
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Lipocine Target Price Odds to finish over 1.01

The tendency of Lipocine Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 1.01 90 days 1.01  more than 94.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lipocine to move above the current price in 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Lipocine probability density function shows the probability of Lipocine Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Lipocine has a beta of 0.85. This indicates Lipocine market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Lipocine is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Lipocine is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Lipocine Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Lipocine

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lipocine. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lipocine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Lipocine in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.051.034.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.091.724.91
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0190630.954.14
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
2.503.756.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lipocine. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lipocine's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lipocine's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Lipocine.

Lipocine Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lipocine is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lipocine's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lipocine, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lipocine within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.32
β
Beta against DOW0.85
σ
Overall volatility
0.07
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Lipocine Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lipocine for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lipocine can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Lipocine generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Lipocine has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Lipocine has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Net Loss for the year was (19 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (5.05 M).
Lipocine currently holds about 46.64 M in cash with (14.27 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.53.
Lipocine has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Purchase by Mahesh Patel of 25000 shares of Lipocine

Lipocine Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lipocine Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lipocine's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lipocine's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.19%
Short Percent Of Float4.29%
Float Shares86.08M
Shares Short Prior Month3.5M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day586.99k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month656.87k
Date Short Interest13th of August 2021

Lipocine Technical Analysis

Lipocine's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lipocine Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lipocine. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lipocine Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Lipocine Predictive Forecast Models

Lipocine time-series forecasting models is one of many Lipocine's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Lipocine's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Lipocine

Checking the ongoing alerts about Lipocine for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lipocine help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Lipocine Alerts

Lipocine Alerts and Suggestions

Lipocine generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Lipocine has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Lipocine has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Net Loss for the year was (19 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (5.05 M).
Lipocine currently holds about 46.64 M in cash with (14.27 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.53.
Lipocine has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Purchase by Mahesh Patel of 25000 shares of Lipocine
Additionally, see Lipocine Backtesting, Lipocine Valuation, Lipocine Correlation, Lipocine Hype Analysis, Lipocine Volatility, Lipocine History as well as Lipocine Performance. Note that the Lipocine information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lipocine's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for Lipocine Stock analysis

When running Lipocine price analysis, check to measure Lipocine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lipocine is operating at the current time. Most of Lipocine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lipocine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lipocine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lipocine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lipocine's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lipocine. If investors know Lipocine will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lipocine listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Lipocine is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lipocine that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lipocine's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lipocine's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lipocine's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lipocine's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lipocine's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Lipocine value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lipocine's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.