Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.13
LXRX Stock | USD 1.74 0.04 2.35% |
Closest to current price Lexicon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Lexicon |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 0.13
The tendency of Lexicon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.13 or more in 90 days |
1.74 | 90 days | 0.13 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals to drop to $ 0.13 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Lexicon Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Lexicon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals price to stay between $ 0.13 and its current price of $1.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.26 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.69 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals will likely underperform. Additionally Lexicon Pharmaceuticals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
Price |
Predictive Modules for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lexicon Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lexicon Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.Lexicon Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals may become a speculative penny stock | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (177.12 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (52.68 M). | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 61.97 M in cash with (161.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.34. | |
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Reports Q1 2024 Earnings Aligns with EPS Projections Amidst Strategic ... |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lexicon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 221.1 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 170 M |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lexicon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lexicon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lexicon Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lexicon Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals may become a speculative penny stock | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (177.12 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (52.68 M). | |
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 61.97 M in cash with (161.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.34. | |
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Reports Q1 2024 Earnings Aligns with EPS Projections Amidst Strategic ... |
Check out Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals History as well as Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Performance. For more information on how to buy Lexicon Stock please use our How to Invest in Lexicon Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Lexicon Stock analysis
When running Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lexicon Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Lexicon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lexicon Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | Earnings Share (0.80) | Revenue Per Share 0.01 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 46.083 | Return On Assets (0.40) |
The market value of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lexicon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lexicon Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.