Micro Focus International Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.98
| MFGPDelisted Stock | USD 6.48 0.11 1.73% |
Micro |
Micro Focus Target Price Odds to finish below 5.98
The tendency of Micro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.98 or more in 90 days |
| 6.48 | 90 days | 5.98 | about 8.42 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Micro Focus to drop to $ 5.98 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.42 (This Micro Focus International probability density function shows the probability of Micro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Micro Focus International price to stay between $ 5.98 and its current price of $6.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.11 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Micro Focus has a beta of 0.53. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Micro Focus average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Micro Focus International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Micro Focus International has an alpha of 0.1029, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Micro Focus Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Micro Focus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Micro Focus International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Micro Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Micro Focus Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Micro Focus is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Micro Focus' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Micro Focus International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Micro Focus within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Micro Focus Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Micro Focus for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Micro Focus International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Micro Focus is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Micro Focus has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company currently holds 4.52 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Micro Focus International has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Micro Focus until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Micro Focus' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Micro Focus International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Micro to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Micro Focus' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 2.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (424.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.13 B. |
Micro Focus Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Micro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Micro Focus' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Micro Focus' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 336.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 558.4 M |
Micro Focus Technical Analysis
Micro Focus' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Micro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Micro Focus International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Micro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Micro Focus Predictive Forecast Models
Micro Focus' time-series forecasting models is one of many Micro Focus' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Micro Focus' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Micro Focus International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Micro Focus for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Micro Focus International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Micro Focus is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Micro Focus has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company currently holds 4.52 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Micro Focus International has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Micro Focus until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Micro Focus' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Micro Focus International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Micro to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Micro Focus' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 2.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (424.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.13 B. |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price. Note that the Micro Focus International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Micro Focus' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Other Consideration for investing in Micro Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Micro Focus International check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Micro Focus' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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