Castle Focus Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 20.2
| MOATX Fund | USD 12.76 0.00 0.00% |
Castle |
Castle Focus Target Price Odds to finish over 20.2
The tendency of Castle Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 20.20 or more in 90 days |
| 12.76 | 90 days | 20.20 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Castle Focus to move over $ 20.20 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Castle Focus Fund probability density function shows the probability of Castle Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Castle Focus price to stay between its current price of $ 12.76 and $ 20.20 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.43 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Castle Focus Fund has a beta of -0.0923. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Castle Focus are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Castle Focus Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Castle Focus Fund has an alpha of 0.0349, implying that it can generate a 0.0349 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Castle Focus Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Castle Focus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Castle Focus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Castle Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Castle Focus Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Castle Focus is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Castle Focus' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Castle Focus Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Castle Focus within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Castle Focus Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Castle Focus for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Castle Focus can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund maintains about 17.16% of its assets in cash |
Castle Focus Technical Analysis
Castle Focus' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Castle Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Castle Focus Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Castle Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Castle Focus Predictive Forecast Models
Castle Focus' time-series forecasting models is one of many Castle Focus' mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Castle Focus' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Castle Focus
Checking the ongoing alerts about Castle Focus for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Castle Focus help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund maintains about 17.16% of its assets in cash |
Check out Castle Focus Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Castle Focus Correlation, Castle Focus Hype Analysis, Castle Focus Volatility, Castle Focus History as well as Castle Focus Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.