Moderna Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 170.18

MRNA Stock  USD 106.82  3.77  3.41%   
Moderna's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Moderna. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Moderna based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Moderna over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $107.0 is a CALL option contract on Moderna's common stock with a strick price of 107.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:58:10 for $3.65 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.65, and an ask price of $4.0. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 38.57. View All Moderna options

Closest to current price Moderna long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Moderna's future price is the expected price of Moderna instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Moderna performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Moderna Backtesting, Moderna Valuation, Moderna Correlation, Moderna Hype Analysis, Moderna Volatility, Moderna History as well as Moderna Performance.
For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.
  
The current year's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is expected to grow to 0.05, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to (8.46). Please specify Moderna's target price for which you would like Moderna odds to be computed.

Moderna Target Price Odds to finish over 170.18

The tendency of Moderna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 170.18  or more in 90 days
 106.82 90 days 170.18 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moderna to move over $ 170.18  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Moderna probability density function shows the probability of Moderna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Moderna price to stay between its current price of $ 106.82  and $ 170.18  at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.25 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.5 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Moderna will likely underperform. Additionally Moderna has an alpha of 0.0381, implying that it can generate a 0.0381 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Moderna Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Moderna

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moderna's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.86106.65110.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
96.14133.02136.81
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
99.91103.70107.49
Details
27 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
152.56167.65186.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moderna. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moderna's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moderna's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Moderna.

Moderna Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moderna is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moderna's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moderna, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moderna within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.50
σ
Overall volatility
7.12
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Moderna Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moderna for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moderna can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Moderna had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.71 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.55 B.
Moderna currently holds about 8.35 B in cash with (3.12 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 21.73.
Roughly 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from bizjournals.com: Moderna says its next-gen Covid-19 is better than current version

Moderna Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moderna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moderna's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moderna's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding382 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.6 B

Moderna Technical Analysis

Moderna's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Moderna Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Moderna. In general, you should focus on analyzing Moderna Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Moderna Predictive Forecast Models

Moderna's time-series forecasting models is one of many Moderna's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Moderna's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Moderna

Checking the ongoing alerts about Moderna for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Moderna help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Moderna had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.71 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.55 B.
Moderna currently holds about 8.35 B in cash with (3.12 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 21.73.
Roughly 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from bizjournals.com: Moderna says its next-gen Covid-19 is better than current version
When determining whether Moderna offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Moderna's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Moderna Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Moderna Stock:

Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis

When running Moderna's price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Moderna's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. If investors know Moderna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moderna listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.85)
Earnings Share
(12.33)
Revenue Per Share
17.927
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.45)
Return On Assets
(0.12)
The market value of Moderna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moderna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moderna's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moderna's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moderna's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moderna's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moderna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.