Marathon Oil Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.98
| MRO Stock | USD 27.68 0.67 2.36% |
Closest to current price Marathon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Marathon |
Marathon Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 19.98
The tendency of Marathon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.98 or more in 90 days |
| 27.68 | 90 days | 19.98 | roughly 2.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marathon Oil to drop to $ 19.98 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.36 (This Marathon Oil probability density function shows the probability of Marathon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marathon Oil price to stay between $ 19.98 and its current price of $27.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.84 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Marathon Oil has a beta of 0.94. This indicates Marathon Oil market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Marathon Oil is expected to follow. Additionally Marathon Oil has an alpha of 0.2179, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Marathon Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marathon Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marathon Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marathon Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marathon Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marathon Oil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marathon Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.94 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Marathon Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marathon Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marathon Oil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 11th of March 2024 Marathon Oil paid $ 0.11 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Why Marathon Oil is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Term |
Marathon Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marathon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marathon Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 608 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 155 M |
Marathon Oil Technical Analysis
Marathon Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marathon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marathon Oil. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marathon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Marathon Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Marathon Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marathon Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marathon Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Marathon Oil
Checking the ongoing alerts about Marathon Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Marathon Oil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 11th of March 2024 Marathon Oil paid $ 0.11 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Why Marathon Oil is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Term |
Check out Marathon Oil Backtesting, Marathon Oil Valuation, Marathon Oil Correlation, Marathon Oil Hype Analysis, Marathon Oil Volatility, Marathon Oil History as well as Marathon Oil Performance. To learn how to invest in Marathon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marathon Oil guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Marathon Stock analysis
When running Marathon Oil's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marathon Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Oil. If investors know Marathon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marathon Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | Dividend Share 0.42 | Earnings Share 2.56 | Revenue Per Share 10.631 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Marathon Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marathon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marathon Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marathon Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marathon Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marathon Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marathon Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marathon Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marathon Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.