Microsoft Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 212.0

MSFT Stock

USD 273.78 1.55 0.57%

Microsoft's future price is the expected price of Microsoft instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Microsoft performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to gain to 30.83 in 2023, whereas Price to Book Value is likely to drop 11.48 in 2023.

Microsoft's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Microsoft. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Microsoft based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Microsoft over a specific time period. For example, 2023-03-24 CALL at $275.0 is a CALL option contract on Microsoft's common stock with a strick price of 275.0 expiring on 2023-03-24. The contract was last traded on 2023-03-20 at 15:59:52 for $3.15 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.0, and an ask price of $3.2. The implied volatility as of the 21st of March is 38.0954. View All Microsoft options

Closest to current price Microsoft long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Microsoft Backtesting, Microsoft Valuation, Microsoft Correlation, Microsoft Hype Analysis, Microsoft Volatility, Microsoft History as well as Microsoft Performance. Please specify Microsoft time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Microsoft odds to be computed.

Microsoft Target Price Odds to finish over 212.0

The tendency of Microsoft Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.

Current Price	Horizon	Target Price	Odds to stay above $ 212.00 in 90 days
273.78	90 days	212.00	close to 99

Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microsoft to stay above $ 212.00 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Microsoft probability density function shows the probability of Microsoft Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Microsoft price to stay between $ 212.00 and its current price of $273.78 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 97.0 .

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.06 . This indicates Microsoft market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Microsoft is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1891, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).

Microsoft Price Density

Price

Predictive Modules for Microsoft

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Microsoft in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
269.00	270.97	272.94

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
244.46	297.50	299.47

Details

29 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
212.00	287.09	370.00

Details

Earnings

Estimates (16)

Low	Projected EPS	High
2.15	2.22	2.26

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Microsoft.

Microsoft Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microsoft is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microsoft's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microsoft, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microsoft within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.

α	Alpha over NYSE Composite	0.19	Details
β	Beta against NYSE Composite	1.06	Details
σ	Overall volatility	13.07	Details
Ir	Information ratio	0.09	Details

Microsoft Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microsoft for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microsoft can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	Microsoft is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	Microsoft has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
	About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
	On 9th of March 2023 Microsoft paid $ 0.68 per share dividend to its current shareholders
	Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Stock market today Dow ends higher on UBS-Credit Suisse rescue Fed meeting eyed

Microsoft Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Microsoft Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Microsoft's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microsoft's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	7.5 B
	Cash And Short Term Investments	104.7 B

Microsoft Technical Analysis

Microsoft's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Microsoft Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Microsoft. In general, you should focus on analyzing Microsoft Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Microsoft Predictive Forecast Models

Microsoft time-series forecasting models is one of many Microsoft's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Microsoft's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Microsoft

Checking the ongoing alerts about Microsoft for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Microsoft help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	Microsoft is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	Microsoft has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
	About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
	On 9th of March 2023 Microsoft paid $ 0.68 per share dividend to its current shareholders
	Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Stock market today Dow ends higher on UBS-Credit Suisse rescue Fed meeting eyed

Additionally, see Microsoft Backtesting, Microsoft Valuation, Microsoft Correlation, Microsoft Hype Analysis, Microsoft Volatility, Microsoft History as well as Microsoft Performance. Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

When running Microsoft price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Microsoft's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.11)

Dividend Share

2.6

Earnings Share

9.47

Revenue Per Share

27.327

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.02

The market value of Microsoft is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Microsoft value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
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	Triple Exponential Smoothing
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	Simple Moving Average
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	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Microsoft Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 212.0

Closest to current price Microsoft long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Microsoft Target Price Odds to finish over 212.0

Predictive Modules for Microsoft

Microsoft Risk Indicators

Microsoft Alerts and Suggestions

Microsoft Price Density Drivers

Microsoft Technical Analysis

Microsoft Predictive Forecast Models

Things to note about Microsoft

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

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