ArcelorMittal Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 30.43

MT Stock  USD 30.43  0.66  2.12%   
ArcelorMittal's future price is the expected price of ArcelorMittal instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ArcelorMittal SA ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to gain to 2.28 in 2023, whereas Price to Book Value is likely to drop 0.74 in 2023.
  
ArcelorMittal's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on ArcelorMittal SA ADR. Implied volatility approximates the future value of ArcelorMittal based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in ArcelorMittal SA ADR over a specific time period. For example, 2023-02-10 CALL at $30.0 is a CALL option contract on ArcelorMittal's common stock with a strick price of 30.0 expiring on 2023-02-10. The contract was last traded on 2023-02-03 at 15:59:49 for $1.11 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.05, and an ask price of $1.11. The implied volatility as of the 4th of February is 51.9315. View All ArcelorMittal options

Closest to current price ArcelorMittal long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see ArcelorMittal Backtesting, ArcelorMittal Valuation, ArcelorMittal Correlation, ArcelorMittal Hype Analysis, ArcelorMittal Volatility, ArcelorMittal History as well as ArcelorMittal Performance. Please specify ArcelorMittal time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like ArcelorMittal odds to be computed.

ArcelorMittal Target Price Odds to finish over 30.43

The tendency of ArcelorMittal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 30.43 90 days 30.43 
about 12.22
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ArcelorMittal to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 12.22 (This ArcelorMittal SA ADR probability density function shows the probability of ArcelorMittal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.54 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ArcelorMittal will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2971, implying that it can generate a 0.3 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   ArcelorMittal Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ArcelorMittal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ArcelorMittal SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ArcelorMittal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ArcelorMittal in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
28.2630.4132.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.3936.3838.53
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
27.2029.3531.49
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
47.2050.1052.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ArcelorMittal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ArcelorMittal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ArcelorMittal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ArcelorMittal SA ADR.

ArcelorMittal Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ArcelorMittal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ArcelorMittal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ArcelorMittal SA ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ArcelorMittal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.30
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.54
σ
Overall volatility
2.62
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

ArcelorMittal Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ArcelorMittal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ArcelorMittal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ArcelorMittal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments4.2 B

ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis

ArcelorMittal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ArcelorMittal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ArcelorMittal SA ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing ArcelorMittal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ArcelorMittal Predictive Forecast Models

ArcelorMittal time-series forecasting models is one of many ArcelorMittal's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary ArcelorMittal's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

ArcelorMittal Investors Sentiment

The influence of ArcelorMittal's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in ArcelorMittal. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to ArcelorMittal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in ArcelorMittal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ArcelorMittal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ArcelorMittal SA ADR. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
ArcelorMittal's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for ArcelorMittal's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average ArcelorMittal's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on ArcelorMittal.

ArcelorMittal Implied Volatility

    
  49.6  
ArcelorMittal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ArcelorMittal SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ArcelorMittal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ArcelorMittal stock will not fluctuate a lot when ArcelorMittal's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ArcelorMittal in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ArcelorMittal's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ArcelorMittal options trading.
Additionally, see ArcelorMittal Backtesting, ArcelorMittal Valuation, ArcelorMittal Correlation, ArcelorMittal Hype Analysis, ArcelorMittal Volatility, ArcelorMittal History as well as ArcelorMittal Performance. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running ArcelorMittal SA ADR price analysis, check to measure ArcelorMittal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ArcelorMittal is operating at the current time. Most of ArcelorMittal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ArcelorMittal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ArcelorMittal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ArcelorMittal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Commodity Channel Index
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Is ArcelorMittal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ArcelorMittal. If investors know ArcelorMittal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ArcelorMittal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73) 
Market Capitalization
25 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06) 
Return On Assets
0.1037
Return On Equity
0.2608
The market value of ArcelorMittal SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ArcelorMittal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ArcelorMittal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ArcelorMittal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ArcelorMittal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ArcelorMittal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ArcelorMittal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ArcelorMittal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ArcelorMittal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.