Norwegian Cruise Line Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 30.4
| NCLH Stock | USD 18.29 0.12 0.66% |
Closest to current price Norwegian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Norwegian |
Norwegian Cruise Target Price Odds to finish over 30.4
The tendency of Norwegian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 30.40 or more in 90 days |
| 18.29 | 90 days | 30.40 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Norwegian Cruise to move over $ 30.40 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Norwegian Cruise Line probability density function shows the probability of Norwegian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Norwegian Cruise Line price to stay between its current price of $ 18.29 and $ 30.40 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.49 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.95 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Norwegian Cruise will likely underperform. Additionally Norwegian Cruise Line has an alpha of 0.0082, implying that it can generate a 0.008168 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Norwegian Cruise Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Norwegian Cruise
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norwegian Cruise Line. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Norwegian Cruise's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Norwegian Cruise Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Norwegian Cruise is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Norwegian Cruise's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Norwegian Cruise Line, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Norwegian Cruise within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.95 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Norwegian Cruise Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Norwegian Cruise for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Norwegian Cruise Line can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Norwegian Cruise had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 14.73 B in liabilities. Norwegian Cruise Line has a current ratio of 0.45, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Norwegian Cruise until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Norwegian Cruise's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Norwegian Cruise Line sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Norwegian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Norwegian Cruise's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Norwegian Cruise has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings investors are sitting on a loss of 68 percent if they invested five years ago |
Norwegian Cruise Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Norwegian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Norwegian Cruise's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norwegian Cruise's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 427.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 402.4 M |
Norwegian Cruise Technical Analysis
Norwegian Cruise's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Norwegian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Norwegian Cruise Line. In general, you should focus on analyzing Norwegian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Norwegian Cruise Predictive Forecast Models
Norwegian Cruise's time-series forecasting models is one of many Norwegian Cruise's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Norwegian Cruise's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Norwegian Cruise Line
Checking the ongoing alerts about Norwegian Cruise for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Norwegian Cruise Line help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Norwegian Cruise had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 14.73 B in liabilities. Norwegian Cruise Line has a current ratio of 0.45, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Norwegian Cruise until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Norwegian Cruise's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Norwegian Cruise Line sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Norwegian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Norwegian Cruise's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Norwegian Cruise has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings investors are sitting on a loss of 68 percent if they invested five years ago |
Check out Norwegian Cruise Backtesting, Norwegian Cruise Valuation, Norwegian Cruise Correlation, Norwegian Cruise Hype Analysis, Norwegian Cruise Volatility, Norwegian Cruise History as well as Norwegian Cruise Performance. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Norwegian Stock analysis
When running Norwegian Cruise's price analysis, check to measure Norwegian Cruise's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Norwegian Cruise is operating at the current time. Most of Norwegian Cruise's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Norwegian Cruise's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Norwegian Cruise's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Norwegian Cruise to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Norwegian Cruise's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norwegian Cruise. If investors know Norwegian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Norwegian Cruise listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Earnings Share 0.39 | Revenue Per Share 20.145 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.308 | Return On Assets 0.0306 |
The market value of Norwegian Cruise Line is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Norwegian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Norwegian Cruise's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Norwegian Cruise's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Norwegian Cruise's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Norwegian Cruise's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Norwegian Cruise's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Norwegian Cruise is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Norwegian Cruise's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.