Nicholas Mutual Fund Odds of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 36.59

NCTWX -  USA Fund  

USD 36.59  0.81  2.17%

Nicholas' future price is the expected price of Nicholas instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Nicholas II performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Additionally, see Nicholas Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Nicholas Correlation, Nicholas Hype Analysis, Nicholas Volatility, Nicholas History as well as Nicholas Performance. Please specify Nicholas time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Nicholas odds to be computed.
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Nicholas Target Price Odds to finish over 36.59

The tendency of Nicholas Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 36.59 90 days 36.59  about 49.55
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nicholas to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 49.55 (This Nicholas II probability density function shows the probability of Nicholas Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Nicholas II has a beta of -0.2. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Nicholas are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Nicholas II is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.064, implying that it can generate a 0.064 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Nicholas Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Nicholas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nicholas II. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nicholas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nicholas in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
35.8836.5937.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
35.5136.2236.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
36.0436.7537.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
36.4537.3238.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nicholas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nicholas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nicholas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nicholas II.

Nicholas Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nicholas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nicholas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nicholas II, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nicholas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.06
β
Beta against DOW-0.2
σ
Overall volatility
0.89
Ir
Information ratio 0.036279

Nicholas Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nicholas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nicholas II can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains 98.54% of its assets in stocks

Nicholas Technical Analysis

Nicholas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nicholas Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nicholas II. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nicholas Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Nicholas Predictive Forecast Models

Nicholas time-series forecasting models is one of many Nicholas' mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Nicholas' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Nicholas II

Checking the ongoing alerts about Nicholas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nicholas II help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Nicholas Alerts

Nicholas Alerts and Suggestions

The fund maintains 98.54% of its assets in stocks
Additionally, see Nicholas Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Nicholas Correlation, Nicholas Hype Analysis, Nicholas Volatility, Nicholas History as well as Nicholas Performance. Note that the Nicholas II information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nicholas' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

Complementary Tools for Nicholas Mutual Fund analysis

When running Nicholas II price analysis, check to measure Nicholas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nicholas is operating at the current time. Most of Nicholas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nicholas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nicholas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nicholas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Nicholas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nicholas value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nicholas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.