Nio Inc Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 32.15

NIO -  USA Stock  

USD 32.15  4.05  11.19%

Nio Inc's future price is the expected price of Nio Inc instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Nio Inc ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Nio Inc Price Probability 

 
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Nio Inc's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Nio Inc ADR. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Nio Inc based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Nio Inc ADR over a specific time period. For example, 2021-12-10 CALL at $32.0 is a CALL option contract on Nio Inc's common stock with a strick price of 32.0 expiring on 2021-12-10. The contract was last traded on 2021-12-03 at 15:59:50 for $1.96 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.87, and an ask price of $1.96. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 106.4079. View All Nio Inc options

Closest to current price Nio Inc long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Nio Inc Backtesting, Nio Inc Valuation, Nio Inc Correlation, Nio Inc Hype Analysis, Nio Inc Volatility, Nio Inc History as well as Nio Inc Performance. Please specify Nio Inc time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Nio Inc odds to be computed.
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Nio Inc Target Price Odds to finish over 32.15

The tendency of Nio Inc Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 32.15 90 days 32.15  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nio Inc to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Nio Inc ADR probability density function shows the probability of Nio Inc Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.39 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Nio Inc will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Nio Inc ADR is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Nio Inc Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Nio Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nio Inc ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nio Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nio Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
28.6132.0935.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.9439.7943.27
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
31.1734.6538.13
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0062.7080.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nio Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nio Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nio Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nio Inc ADR.

Nio Inc Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nio Inc is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nio Inc's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nio Inc ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nio Inc within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.19
β
Beta against DOW1.39
σ
Overall volatility
2.65
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Nio Inc Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nio Inc for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nio Inc ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Nio Inc ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nio Inc ADR has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Nio Inc ADR has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 27.6 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (8.21 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.87 B.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: NIO Any Price Is Too High A Price To Pay - Seeking Alpha

Nio Inc Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nio Inc Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nio Inc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nio Inc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.68%
Float Shares1.33B
Shares Short Prior Month58.83M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day42.93M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month37.58M
Date Short Interest15th of September 2021

Nio Inc Technical Analysis

Nio Inc's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nio Inc Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nio Inc ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nio Inc Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Nio Inc Predictive Forecast Models

Nio Inc time-series forecasting models is one of many Nio Inc's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Nio Inc's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Nio Inc ADR

Checking the ongoing alerts about Nio Inc for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nio Inc ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Nio Inc Alerts

Nio Inc Alerts and Suggestions

Nio Inc ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nio Inc ADR has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Nio Inc ADR has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 27.6 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (8.21 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.87 B.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: NIO Any Price Is Too High A Price To Pay - Seeking Alpha
Additionally, see Nio Inc Backtesting, Nio Inc Valuation, Nio Inc Correlation, Nio Inc Hype Analysis, Nio Inc Volatility, Nio Inc History as well as Nio Inc Performance. Note that the Nio Inc ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nio Inc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for Nio Inc Stock analysis

When running Nio Inc ADR price analysis, check to measure Nio Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nio Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Nio Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nio Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nio Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nio Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nio Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nio Inc. If investors know Nio Inc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nio Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Nio Inc ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nio Inc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nio Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nio Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nio Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nio Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nio Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nio Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nio Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.