Northern Oil Gas Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 37.35

NOG Stock  USD 37.35  0.71  1.87%   
Northern Oil's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Northern Oil Gas. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Northern Oil based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Northern Oil Gas over a specific time period. For example, 2024-06-21 CALL at $37.0 is a CALL option contract on Northern Oil's common stock with a strick price of 37.0 expiring on 2024-06-21. The contract was last traded on 2024-06-13 at 10:41:51 for $0.65 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.65, and an ask price of $0.8. The implied volatility as of the 14th of June 2024 is 21.86. View All Northern options

Closest to current price Northern long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Northern Oil's future price is the expected price of Northern Oil instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Northern Oil Gas performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Northern Oil Backtesting, Northern Oil Valuation, Northern Oil Correlation, Northern Oil Hype Analysis, Northern Oil Volatility, Northern Oil History as well as Northern Oil Performance.
  
At this time, Northern Oil's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Northern Oil's current Price To Book Ratio is estimated to increase to 1.74, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to decrease to 0.39. Please specify Northern Oil's target price for which you would like Northern Oil odds to be computed.

Northern Oil Target Price Odds to finish over 37.35

The tendency of Northern Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 37.35 90 days 37.35 
more than 94.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northern Oil to move above the current price in 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Northern Oil Gas probability density function shows the probability of Northern Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.2 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Northern Oil will likely underperform. Additionally Northern Oil Gas has an alpha of 0.0488, implying that it can generate a 0.0488 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Northern Oil Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Northern Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.7437.3538.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.6245.0346.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
34.1335.7437.34
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.5651.1756.80
Details

Northern Oil Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northern Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northern Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northern Oil Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northern Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.05
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.20
σ
Overall volatility
1.81
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

Northern Oil Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northern Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northern Oil Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Northern Oil Gas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Northern Oil Gas has 1.84 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.22, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Northern Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.59, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Northern to invest in growth at high rates of return.
Over 93.0% of Northern Oil shares are owned by institutional investors
On 30th of April 2024 Northern Oil paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
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Northern Oil Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northern Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northern Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding92.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.2 M

Northern Oil Technical Analysis

Northern Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northern Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northern Oil Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northern Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Northern Oil Predictive Forecast Models

Northern Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Northern Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Northern Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Northern Oil Gas

Checking the ongoing alerts about Northern Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northern Oil Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Northern Oil Gas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Northern Oil Gas has 1.84 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.22, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Northern Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.59, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Northern to invest in growth at high rates of return.
Over 93.0% of Northern Oil shares are owned by institutional investors
On 30th of April 2024 Northern Oil paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from gizmodo.com: 30 Years Ago Today, Deep Space Nine Made Star Treks Deadliest Threat Clear

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Northern Stock

When determining whether Northern Oil Gas is a strong investment it is important to analyze Northern Oil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Northern Oil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Northern Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Dividend Share
1.55
Earnings Share
6.16
Revenue Per Share
19.262
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.229
The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.