Novartis OTC Stock Odds of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 84.85

NVSEF
 Stock
  

USD 84.85  0.84  1.00%   

Novartis' future price is the expected price of Novartis instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Novartis Ag Basl performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
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Additionally, see Novartis Backtesting, Novartis Valuation, Novartis Correlation, Novartis Hype Analysis, Novartis Volatility, Novartis History as well as Novartis Performance. Please specify Novartis time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Novartis odds to be computed.
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Novartis Target Price Odds to finish over 84.85

The tendency of Novartis OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 84.85 90 days 84.85  about 74.1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novartis to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 74.1 (This Novartis Ag Basl probability density function shows the probability of Novartis OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Novartis has a beta of 0.13. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Novartis average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Novartis Ag Basl will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0277, implying that it can generate a 0.0277 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Novartis Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Novartis

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novartis Ag Basl. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novartis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Novartis in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
83.2584.8686.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
83.4485.0586.66
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
88.1289.7391.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
76.5685.0593.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Novartis. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Novartis' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Novartis' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Novartis Ag Basl.

Novartis Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novartis is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novartis' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novartis Ag Basl, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novartis within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.027695
β
Beta against DOW0.13
σ
Overall volatility
3.62
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Novartis Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novartis for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novartis Ag Basl can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Novartis Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novartis OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novartis' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novartis' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.40
Float Shares2.13B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day29.32k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month23.92k
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.31%

Novartis Technical Analysis

Novartis' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novartis OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novartis Ag Basl. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novartis OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Novartis Predictive Forecast Models

Novartis time-series forecasting models is one of many Novartis' otc stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Novartis' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Novartis Ag Basl

Checking the ongoing alerts about Novartis for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novartis Ag Basl help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Novartis Alerts

Novartis Alerts and Suggestions

Additionally, see Novartis Backtesting, Novartis Valuation, Novartis Correlation, Novartis Hype Analysis, Novartis Volatility, Novartis History as well as Novartis Performance. Note that the Novartis Ag Basl information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novartis' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Novartis OTC Stock analysis

When running Novartis Ag Basl price analysis, check to measure Novartis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novartis is operating at the current time. Most of Novartis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novartis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novartis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novartis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novartis' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novartis. If investors know Novartis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novartis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.088
Market Capitalization
194.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.009
Return On Assets
0.0651
Return On Equity
0.43
The market value of Novartis Ag Basl is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novartis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novartis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novartis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novartis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novartis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Novartis value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.