Organigram Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.04
| OGI Stock | USD 1.95 0.05 2.63% |
Closest to current price OrganiGram long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
OrganiGram |
OrganiGram Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 2.04
The tendency of OrganiGram Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 2.04 or more in 90 days |
| 1.95 | 90 days | 2.04 | about 46.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of OrganiGram Holdings to move over $ 2.04 or more in 90 days from now is about 46.54 (This OrganiGram Holdings probability density function shows the probability of OrganiGram Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of OrganiGram Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 1.95 and $ 2.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.42 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.33 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, OrganiGram Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally OrganiGram Holdings has an alpha of 0.0958, implying that it can generate a 0.0958 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). OrganiGram Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for OrganiGram Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OrganiGram Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OrganiGram Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
OrganiGram Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. OrganiGram Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the OrganiGram Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold OrganiGram Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of OrganiGram Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.1 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
OrganiGram Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of OrganiGram Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for OrganiGram Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| OrganiGram Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| OrganiGram Holdings may become a speculative penny stock | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 149.21 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (229.48 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 35.07 M. | |
| OrganiGram Holdings has about 127.36 M in cash with (35.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.41. | |
| OrganiGram Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Organigram Holdings Inc down on Wednesday - The Globe and Mail |
OrganiGram Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of OrganiGram Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential OrganiGram Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OrganiGram Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 81.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.9 M |
OrganiGram Holdings Technical Analysis
OrganiGram Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. OrganiGram Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of OrganiGram Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing OrganiGram Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
OrganiGram Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
OrganiGram Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many OrganiGram Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary OrganiGram Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about OrganiGram Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about OrganiGram Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for OrganiGram Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| OrganiGram Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| OrganiGram Holdings may become a speculative penny stock | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 149.21 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (229.48 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 35.07 M. | |
| OrganiGram Holdings has about 127.36 M in cash with (35.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.41. | |
| OrganiGram Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Organigram Holdings Inc down on Wednesday - The Globe and Mail |
Check out OrganiGram Holdings Backtesting, OrganiGram Holdings Valuation, OrganiGram Holdings Correlation, OrganiGram Holdings Hype Analysis, OrganiGram Holdings Volatility, OrganiGram Holdings History as well as OrganiGram Holdings Performance. For more detail on how to invest in OrganiGram Stock please use our How to Invest in OrganiGram Holdings guide.Note that the OrganiGram Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other OrganiGram Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for OrganiGram Stock analysis
When running OrganiGram Holdings' price analysis, check to measure OrganiGram Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OrganiGram Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of OrganiGram Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OrganiGram Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OrganiGram Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OrganiGram Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is OrganiGram Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OrganiGram Holdings. If investors know OrganiGram will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OrganiGram Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.82) | Revenue Per Share 1.835 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) | Return On Assets (0.06) | Return On Equity (0.55) |
The market value of OrganiGram Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OrganiGram that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OrganiGram Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OrganiGram Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OrganiGram Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OrganiGram Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OrganiGram Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OrganiGram Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OrganiGram Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.