Jpmorgan Government Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 10.85
| OGVCX Fund | USD 9.20 0.02 0.22% |
Jpmorgan |
Jpmorgan Government Target Price Odds to finish over 10.85
The tendency of Jpmorgan Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.85 or more in 90 days |
| 9.20 | 90 days | 10.85 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jpmorgan Government to move over $ 10.85 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Jpmorgan Government Bond probability density function shows the probability of Jpmorgan Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Jpmorgan Government Bond price to stay between its current price of $ 9.20 and $ 10.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Jpmorgan Government has a beta of 0.21. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Jpmorgan Government average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Jpmorgan Government Bond will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Jpmorgan Government Bond has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Jpmorgan Government Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Jpmorgan Government
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jpmorgan Government Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jpmorgan Government's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Jpmorgan Government Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jpmorgan Government is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jpmorgan Government's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jpmorgan Government Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jpmorgan Government within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
Jpmorgan Government Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jpmorgan Government for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jpmorgan Government Bond can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Jpmorgan Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Jpmorgan Government Bond generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund maintains most of the assets in different exotic instruments. |
Jpmorgan Government Technical Analysis
Jpmorgan Government's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jpmorgan Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jpmorgan Government Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jpmorgan Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Jpmorgan Government Predictive Forecast Models
Jpmorgan Government's time-series forecasting models is one of many Jpmorgan Government's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Jpmorgan Government's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Jpmorgan Government Bond
Checking the ongoing alerts about Jpmorgan Government for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jpmorgan Government Bond help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Jpmorgan Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Jpmorgan Government Bond generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund maintains most of the assets in different exotic instruments. |
Check out Jpmorgan Government Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Jpmorgan Government Correlation, Jpmorgan Government Hype Analysis, Jpmorgan Government Volatility, Jpmorgan Government History as well as Jpmorgan Government Performance. Note that the Jpmorgan Government Bond information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jpmorgan Government's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.