Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.59

PBR Stock  USD 15.21  0.28  1.88%   
Petroleo Brasileiro's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Petroleo Brasileiro based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Petroleo Brasileiro's common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:54:49 for $0.08 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.06, and an ask price of $0.08. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 36.15. View All Petroleo options

Closest to current price Petroleo long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Petroleo Brasileiro's future price is the expected price of Petroleo Brasileiro instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Petroleo Brasileiro Backtesting, Petroleo Brasileiro Valuation, Petroleo Brasileiro Correlation, Petroleo Brasileiro Hype Analysis, Petroleo Brasileiro Volatility, Petroleo Brasileiro History as well as Petroleo Brasileiro Performance.
  
At this time, Petroleo Brasileiro's Price Fair Value is relatively stable compared to the past year. Please specify Petroleo Brasileiro's target price for which you would like Petroleo Brasileiro odds to be computed.

Petroleo Brasileiro Target Price Odds to finish over 19.59

The tendency of Petroleo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 19.59  or more in 90 days
 15.21 90 days 19.59 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Petroleo Brasileiro to move over $ 19.59  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras probability density function shows the probability of Petroleo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Petroleo Brasileiro price to stay between its current price of $ 15.21  and $ 19.59  at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.02 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.27 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Petroleo Brasileiro will likely underperform. Additionally Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Petroleo Brasileiro Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Petroleo Brasileiro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Petroleo Brasileiro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Petroleo Brasileiro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.6414.9117.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.7215.9918.26
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.5615.8318.10
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.9916.4718.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Petroleo Brasileiro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Petroleo Brasileiro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Petroleo Brasileiro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Petroleo Brasileiro.

Petroleo Brasileiro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Petroleo Brasileiro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Petroleo Brasileiro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Petroleo Brasileiro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.21
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.27
σ
Overall volatility
0.97
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Petroleo Brasileiro Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Petroleo Brasileiro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Petroleo Brasileiro can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Petroleo Brasileiro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Petroleo Brasileiro has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
On 27th of February 2024 Petroleo Brasileiro paid $ 0.4488 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Petrobras Boosts LNG Imports Amid Pipeline Maintenance

Petroleo Brasileiro Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Petroleo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Petroleo Brasileiro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Petroleo Brasileiro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments15.5 B

Petroleo Brasileiro Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Petroleo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras. In general, you should focus on analyzing Petroleo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Petroleo Brasileiro Predictive Forecast Models

Petroleo Brasileiro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Petroleo Brasileiro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Petroleo Brasileiro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Petroleo Brasileiro

Checking the ongoing alerts about Petroleo Brasileiro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Petroleo Brasileiro help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Petroleo Brasileiro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Petroleo Brasileiro has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
On 27th of February 2024 Petroleo Brasileiro paid $ 0.4488 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Petrobras Boosts LNG Imports Amid Pipeline Maintenance
When determining whether Petroleo Brasileiro is a strong investment it is important to analyze Petroleo Brasileiro's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Petroleo Brasileiro's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Petroleo Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Petroleo Brasileiro Backtesting, Petroleo Brasileiro Valuation, Petroleo Brasileiro Correlation, Petroleo Brasileiro Hype Analysis, Petroleo Brasileiro Volatility, Petroleo Brasileiro History as well as Petroleo Brasileiro Performance.
Note that the Petroleo Brasileiro information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Petroleo Brasileiro's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

Complementary Tools for Petroleo Stock analysis

When running Petroleo Brasileiro's price analysis, check to measure Petroleo Brasileiro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Petroleo Brasileiro is operating at the current time. Most of Petroleo Brasileiro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Petroleo Brasileiro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Petroleo Brasileiro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Petroleo Brasileiro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Is Petroleo Brasileiro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Petroleo Brasileiro. If investors know Petroleo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Petroleo Brasileiro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.28)
Dividend Share
5.569
Earnings Share
3.82
Revenue Per Share
78.634
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.15)
The market value of Petroleo Brasileiro is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Petroleo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Petroleo Brasileiro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Petroleo Brasileiro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Petroleo Brasileiro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Petroleo Brasileiro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Petroleo Brasileiro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Petroleo Brasileiro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Petroleo Brasileiro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.