Smallcap Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 10.09
| PJARX Fund | USD 11.69 0.01 0.09% |
Smallcap |
Smallcap Value Target Price Odds to finish below 10.09
The tendency of Smallcap Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 10.09 or more in 90 days |
| 11.69 | 90 days | 10.09 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smallcap Value to drop to $ 10.09 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Smallcap Value Fund probability density function shows the probability of Smallcap Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smallcap Value price to stay between $ 10.09 and its current price of $11.69 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.21 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.39 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Smallcap Value will likely underperform. Additionally Smallcap Value Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Smallcap Value Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smallcap Value
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smallcap Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smallcap Value's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Smallcap Value Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smallcap Value is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smallcap Value's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smallcap Value Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smallcap Value within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0075 |
Smallcap Value Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smallcap Value for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smallcap Value can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from news.google.com: JMP Securities Reiterates Allogene Therapeutics Market Outperform Recommendation - MSN | |
| The fund maintains 96.03% of its assets in stocks |
Smallcap Value Technical Analysis
Smallcap Value's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smallcap Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smallcap Value Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smallcap Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smallcap Value Predictive Forecast Models
Smallcap Value's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smallcap Value's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smallcap Value's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smallcap Value
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smallcap Value for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smallcap Value help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from news.google.com: JMP Securities Reiterates Allogene Therapeutics Market Outperform Recommendation - MSN | |
| The fund maintains 96.03% of its assets in stocks |
Check out Smallcap Value Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Smallcap Value Correlation, Smallcap Value Hype Analysis, Smallcap Value Volatility, Smallcap Value History as well as Smallcap Value Performance. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.