Plumb Balanced Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 36.24

PLBBX Fund  USD 37.96  0.08  0.21%   
Plumb Balanced's future price is the expected price of Plumb Balanced instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Plumb Balanced Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Plumb Balanced Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Plumb Balanced Correlation, Plumb Balanced Hype Analysis, Plumb Balanced Volatility, Plumb Balanced History as well as Plumb Balanced Performance.
  
Please specify Plumb Balanced's target price for which you would like Plumb Balanced odds to be computed.

Plumb Balanced Target Price Odds to finish below 36.24

The tendency of Plumb Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 36.24  or more in 90 days
 37.96 90 days 36.24 
about 60.63
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Plumb Balanced to drop to $ 36.24  or more in 90 days from now is about 60.63 (This Plumb Balanced Fund probability density function shows the probability of Plumb Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Plumb Balanced Fund price to stay between $ 36.24  and its current price of $37.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.81 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Plumb Balanced has the beta coefficient that is very close to zero indicating the returns on NYSE COMPOSITE and Plumb Balanced do not appear to be sensitive. Additionally It does not look like Plumb Balanced's alpha can have any bearing on the current valuation.
   Plumb Balanced Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Plumb Balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plumb Balanced Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plumb Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.3237.9638.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.7937.4338.07
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
37.0437.6838.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
37.8637.9338.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Plumb Balanced. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Plumb Balanced's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Plumb Balanced's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Plumb Balanced Fund.

Plumb Balanced Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Plumb Balanced is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Plumb Balanced's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Plumb Balanced Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Plumb Balanced within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.00
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.00
σ
Overall volatility
1.37
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Plumb Balanced Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Plumb Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Plumb Balanced's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Plumb Balanced's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Plumb Balanced Technical Analysis

Plumb Balanced's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Plumb Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Plumb Balanced Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Plumb Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Plumb Balanced Predictive Forecast Models

Plumb Balanced's time-series forecasting models is one of many Plumb Balanced's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Plumb Balanced's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Plumb Balanced in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Plumb Balanced's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Plumb Balanced options trading.
Check out Plumb Balanced Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Plumb Balanced Correlation, Plumb Balanced Hype Analysis, Plumb Balanced Volatility, Plumb Balanced History as well as Plumb Balanced Performance.
Note that the Plumb Balanced Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Plumb Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Plumb Mutual Fund analysis

When running Plumb Balanced's price analysis, check to measure Plumb Balanced's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plumb Balanced is operating at the current time. Most of Plumb Balanced's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plumb Balanced's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plumb Balanced's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plumb Balanced to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Plumb Balanced's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Plumb Balanced is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Plumb Balanced's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.