Philip Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 102.25

PM -  USA Stock  

USD 102.25  0.87  0.86%

Philip Morris' future price is the expected price of Philip Morris instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Philip Morris International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The Price to Book Value is projected to pull down to -13.2. The value of Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to pull down to 16.65.

Philip Price Probability 

 
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Philip Morris' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Philip Morris International. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Philip Morris based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Philip Morris International over a specific time period. For example, 2022-01-28 CALL at $102.0 is a CALL option contract on Philip Morris' common stock with a strick price of 102.0 expiring on 2022-01-28. The contract was last traded on 2022-01-27 at 15:57:15 for $0.82 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.68, and an ask price of $0.99. The implied volatility as of the 28th of January is 32.5603. View All Philip options

Closest to current price Philip long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Philip Morris Backtesting, Philip Morris Valuation, Philip Morris Correlation, Philip Morris Hype Analysis, Philip Morris Volatility, Philip Morris History as well as Philip Morris Performance. Please specify Philip Morris time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Philip Morris odds to be computed.
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Philip Morris Target Price Odds to finish over 102.25

The tendency of Philip Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 102.25 90 days 102.25  nearly 4.03
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Philip Morris to move above the current price in 90 days from now is nearly 4.03 (This Philip Morris International probability density function shows the probability of Philip Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Philip Morris has a beta of 0.3 indicating as returns on the market go up, Philip Morris average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Philip Morris International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1267, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Philip Morris Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Philip Morris

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Philip Morris Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Philip Morris' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Philip Morris in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
101.14102.24103.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
92.03109.71110.81
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
88.00108.50130.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
6.016.046.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Philip Morris. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Philip Morris' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Philip Morris' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Philip Morris Intern.

Philip Morris Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Philip Morris is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Philip Morris' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Philip Morris International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Philip Morris within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.13
β
Beta against DOW0.30
σ
Overall volatility
4.82
Ir
Information ratio 0.16

Philip Morris Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Philip Morris for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Philip Morris Intern can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.ctinsider.com: Altria iQOS cigarette alternative off market through 2022 - CT Insider

Philip Morris Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Philip Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Philip Morris' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Philip Morris' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.53%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate4.85
Short Percent Of Float0.53%
Float Shares1.55B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day6.42M
Shares Short Prior Month8.08M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month5.19M
Date Short Interest15th of December 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.71%

Philip Morris Technical Analysis

Philip Morris' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Philip Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Philip Morris International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Philip Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Philip Morris Predictive Forecast Models

Philip Morris time-series forecasting models is one of many Philip Morris' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Philip Morris' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Philip Morris Intern

Checking the ongoing alerts about Philip Morris for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Philip Morris Intern help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Philip Morris Alerts

Philip Morris Alerts and Suggestions

Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.ctinsider.com: Altria iQOS cigarette alternative off market through 2022 - CT Insider
Please check Philip Morris Backtesting, Philip Morris Valuation, Philip Morris Correlation, Philip Morris Hype Analysis, Philip Morris Volatility, Philip Morris History as well as Philip Morris Performance. Note that the Philip Morris Intern information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Philip Morris' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for Philip Stock analysis

When running Philip Morris Intern price analysis, check to measure Philip Morris' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Philip Morris is operating at the current time. Most of Philip Morris' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Philip Morris' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Philip Morris' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Philip Morris to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Philip Morris' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Philip Morris. If investors know Philip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Philip Morris listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Philip Morris Intern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Philip that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Philip Morris' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Philip Morris' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Philip Morris' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Philip Morris' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Philip Morris' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Philip Morris value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Philip Morris' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.