Pool Corporation Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 375.50

POOL Stock  USD 375.50  3.64  0.96%   
Pool's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Pool Corporation. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Pool based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Pool Corporation over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $380.0 is a CALL option contract on Pool's common stock with a strick price of 380.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-04-10 at 12:44:52 for $29.75 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $5.8, and an ask price of $8.5. The implied volatility as of the 12th of April 2024 is 35.43. View All Pool options

Closest to current price Pool long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Pool's future price is the expected price of Pool instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Pool Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Pool Backtesting, Pool Valuation, Pool Correlation, Pool Hype Analysis, Pool Volatility, Pool History as well as Pool Performance.
  
At this time, Pool's Price To Sales Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to rise to 19.50 this year, although Price Book Value Ratio will most likely fall to 7.48. Please specify Pool's target price for which you would like Pool odds to be computed.

Pool Target Price Odds to finish over 375.50

The tendency of Pool Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 375.50 90 days 375.50 
about 89.26
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pool to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.26 (This Pool Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Pool Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.72 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Pool will likely underperform. Additionally Pool Corporation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Pool Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Pool

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pool. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pool's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
373.71375.48377.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
337.95378.90380.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
373.21374.98376.75
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
340.25373.90415.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pool. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pool's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pool's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pool.

Pool Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pool is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pool's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pool Corporation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pool within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.14
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.72
σ
Overall volatility
12.63
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Pool Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Pool for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Pool can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Pool generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Pool has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 28th of March 2024 Pool paid $ 1.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Disposition of 266 shares by Walker Saik of Pool at 471.87 subject to Rule 16b-3

Pool Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Pool Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Pool's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pool's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding39 M
Cash And Short Term Investments66.5 M

Pool Technical Analysis

Pool's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pool Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pool Corporation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pool Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Pool Predictive Forecast Models

Pool's time-series forecasting models is one of many Pool's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Pool's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Pool

Checking the ongoing alerts about Pool for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Pool help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Pool generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Pool has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 28th of March 2024 Pool paid $ 1.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Disposition of 266 shares by Walker Saik of Pool at 471.87 subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Pool is a strong investment it is important to analyze Pool's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Pool's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Pool Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Pool Stock analysis

When running Pool's price analysis, check to measure Pool's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pool is operating at the current time. Most of Pool's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pool's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pool's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pool to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Pool's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pool. If investors know Pool will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pool listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.27)
Dividend Share
4.3
Earnings Share
13.34
Revenue Per Share
143.179
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.09)
The market value of Pool is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pool that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pool's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pool's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pool's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pool's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pool's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pool is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pool's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.