Virtus Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 11.36

PXCZX -  USA Fund  

USD 11.37  0.01  0.09%

Virtus Newfleet's future price is the expected price of Virtus Newfleet instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Virtus Price Probability 

 
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Please check Virtus Newfleet Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Virtus Newfleet Correlation, Virtus Newfleet Hype Analysis, Virtus Newfleet Volatility, Virtus Newfleet History as well as Virtus Newfleet Performance. Please specify Virtus Newfleet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Virtus Newfleet odds to be computed.
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Virtus Newfleet Target Price Odds to finish below 11.36

The tendency of Virtus Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 11.36  or more in 90 days
 11.37 90 days 11.36  about 39.22
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Virtus Newfleet to drop to $ 11.36  or more in 90 days from now is about 39.22 (This Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt probability density function shows the probability of Virtus Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Virtus Newfleet Tax- price to stay between $ 11.36  and its current price of $11.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.44 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt has a beta of -0.0158 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Virtus Newfleet are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Virtus Newfleet Tax- is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Virtus Newfleet Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Virtus Newfleet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus Newfleet Tax-. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virtus Newfleet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Virtus Newfleet in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.2911.3711.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.2911.3711.45
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
11.3011.3811.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.3411.3611.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Virtus Newfleet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Virtus Newfleet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Virtus Newfleet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Virtus Newfleet Tax-.

Virtus Newfleet Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Virtus Newfleet is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Virtus Newfleet's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Virtus Newfleet within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.02
β
Beta against DOW-0.02
σ
Overall volatility
0.046877
Ir
Information ratio 0.22

Virtus Newfleet Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Virtus Newfleet for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Virtus Newfleet Tax- can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Virtus Newfleet Tax- generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Virtus Newfleet Tax- is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains about 98.6% of its assets in bonds

Virtus Newfleet Technical Analysis

Virtus Newfleet's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Virtus Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Virtus Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Virtus Newfleet Predictive Forecast Models

Virtus Newfleet time-series forecasting models is one of many Virtus Newfleet's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Virtus Newfleet's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Virtus Newfleet Tax-

Checking the ongoing alerts about Virtus Newfleet for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Virtus Newfleet Tax- help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Virtus Newfleet Alerts

Virtus Newfleet Alerts and Suggestions

Virtus Newfleet Tax- generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Virtus Newfleet Tax- is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains about 98.6% of its assets in bonds
Please check Virtus Newfleet Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Virtus Newfleet Correlation, Virtus Newfleet Hype Analysis, Virtus Newfleet Volatility, Virtus Newfleet History as well as Virtus Newfleet Performance. Note that the Virtus Newfleet Tax- information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Virtus Newfleet's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Virtus Mutual Fund analysis

When running Virtus Newfleet Tax- price analysis, check to measure Virtus Newfleet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virtus Newfleet is operating at the current time. Most of Virtus Newfleet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virtus Newfleet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virtus Newfleet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virtus Newfleet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Virtus Newfleet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Virtus Newfleet value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virtus Newfleet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.