Roche Holding Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Under 46.82

RHHBY Stock  USD 31.31  0.02  0.06%   
Roche Holding's future price is the expected price of Roche Holding instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Roche Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Roche Holding Backtesting, Roche Holding Valuation, Roche Holding Correlation, Roche Holding Hype Analysis, Roche Holding Volatility, Roche Holding History as well as Roche Holding Performance.
  
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Roche Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 46.82

The tendency of Roche OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 46.82  after 90 days
 31.31 90 days 46.82 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Roche Holding to stay under $ 46.82  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Roche Holding probability density function shows the probability of Roche OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Roche Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 31.31  and $ 46.82  at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.48 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Roche Holding has a beta of -0.0651 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Roche Holding are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Roche Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Roche Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Roche Holding Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Roche Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roche Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Roche Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
30.0131.3132.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.4329.7334.44
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
28.5329.8331.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
31.2831.3031.32
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Roche Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Roche Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Roche Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Roche Holding.

Roche Holding Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Roche Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Roche Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Roche Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Roche Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.1
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.07
σ
Overall volatility
1.57
Ir
Information ratio -0.18

Roche Holding Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Roche Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Roche Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Roche Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Roche Holding Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Roche OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Roche Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Roche Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding854.3 M

Roche Holding Technical Analysis

Roche Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Roche OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Roche Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Roche OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Roche Holding Predictive Forecast Models

Roche Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Roche Holding's otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Roche Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Roche Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Roche Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Roche Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Roche Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Check out Roche Holding Backtesting, Roche Holding Valuation, Roche Holding Correlation, Roche Holding Hype Analysis, Roche Holding Volatility, Roche Holding History as well as Roche Holding Performance.
Note that the Roche Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Roche Holding's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.

Complementary Tools for Roche OTC Stock analysis

When running Roche Holding's price analysis, check to measure Roche Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Roche Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Roche Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Roche Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Roche Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Roche Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Roche Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Roche Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Roche Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.