American Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 33.12

RLEFX -  USA Fund  

USD 29.96  0.06  0.20%

American Balanced's future price is the expected price of American Balanced instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Balanced performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
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Additionally, take a look at American Balanced Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Balanced Correlation, American Balanced Hype Analysis, American Balanced Volatility, American Balanced History as well as American Balanced Performance. Please specify American Balanced time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Balanced odds to be computed.
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American Balanced Target Price Odds to finish below 33.12

The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 33.12  after 90 days
 29.96 90 days 33.12  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Balanced to stay under $ 33.12  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This American Balanced probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Balanced price to stay between its current price of $ 29.96  and $ 33.12  at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.79 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Balanced has a beta of 0.66 indicating as returns on the market go up, American Balanced average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Balanced will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. American Balanced is significantly underperforming DOW.
 American Balanced Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for American Balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Balanced in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.0429.9430.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
29.3130.2131.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Balanced. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Balanced's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Balanced's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Balanced.

American Balanced Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Balanced is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Balanced's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Balanced, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Balanced within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.01
β
Beta against DOW0.66
σ
Overall volatility
0.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.037039

American Balanced Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Balanced for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Balanced can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Balanced generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
American Balanced is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains about 7.88% of its assets in cash

American Balanced Technical Analysis

American Balanced's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Balanced. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Balanced Predictive Forecast Models

American Balanced time-series forecasting models is one of many American Balanced's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Balanced's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Balanced

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Balanced for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Balanced help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

American Balanced Alerts

American Balanced Alerts and Suggestions

American Balanced generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
American Balanced is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains about 7.88% of its assets in cash
Additionally, take a look at American Balanced Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Balanced Correlation, American Balanced Hype Analysis, American Balanced Volatility, American Balanced History as well as American Balanced Performance. Note that the American Balanced information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Balanced price analysis, check to measure American Balanced's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Balanced is operating at the current time. Most of American Balanced's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Balanced's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Balanced's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Balanced to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Balanced's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Balanced value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Balanced's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.