Saipem Spa Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.11

SAPMF Stock  USD 2.35  0.05  2.17%   
Saipem SpA's future price is the expected price of Saipem SpA instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Saipem SpA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Saipem SpA Backtesting, Saipem SpA Valuation, Saipem SpA Correlation, Saipem SpA Hype Analysis, Saipem SpA Volatility, Saipem SpA History as well as Saipem SpA Performance.
  
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Saipem SpA Target Price Odds to finish below 0.11

The tendency of Saipem Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 0.11  or more in 90 days
 2.35 90 days 0.11 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Saipem SpA to drop to $ 0.11  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Saipem SpA probability density function shows the probability of Saipem Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Saipem SpA price to stay between $ 0.11  and its current price of $2.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 1.28 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Saipem SpA will likely underperform. Additionally Saipem SpA has an alpha of 0.5931, implying that it can generate a 0.59 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Saipem SpA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Saipem SpA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saipem SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Saipem SpA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.122.359.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.091.768.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.042.139.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2.292.332.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Saipem SpA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Saipem SpA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Saipem SpA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Saipem SpA.

Saipem SpA Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Saipem SpA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Saipem SpA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Saipem SpA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Saipem SpA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.59
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.28
σ
Overall volatility
0.34
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Saipem SpA Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Saipem SpA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Saipem SpA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Saipem SpA is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Saipem SpA appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company has accumulated 2.43 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 6.55, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Saipem SpA has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Saipem SpA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Saipem SpA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Saipem SpA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Saipem to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Saipem SpA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 6.88 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.47 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 36 M.
About 44.0% of Saipem SpA outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Saipem SpA Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Saipem Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Saipem SpA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saipem SpA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding39.4 M

Saipem SpA Technical Analysis

Saipem SpA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Saipem Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Saipem SpA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Saipem Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Saipem SpA Predictive Forecast Models

Saipem SpA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Saipem SpA's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Saipem SpA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Saipem SpA

Checking the ongoing alerts about Saipem SpA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Saipem SpA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Saipem SpA is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Saipem SpA appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company has accumulated 2.43 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 6.55, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Saipem SpA has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Saipem SpA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Saipem SpA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Saipem SpA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Saipem to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Saipem SpA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 6.88 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.47 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 36 M.
About 44.0% of Saipem SpA outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Check out Saipem SpA Backtesting, Saipem SpA Valuation, Saipem SpA Correlation, Saipem SpA Hype Analysis, Saipem SpA Volatility, Saipem SpA History as well as Saipem SpA Performance.
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Complementary Tools for Saipem Pink Sheet analysis

When running Saipem SpA's price analysis, check to measure Saipem SpA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saipem SpA is operating at the current time. Most of Saipem SpA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saipem SpA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saipem SpA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saipem SpA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Saipem SpA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Saipem SpA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Saipem SpA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.