Simon Property Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 148.83

SPG Stock  USD 148.83  3.04  2.00%   
Simon Property's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Simon Property Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Simon Property based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Simon Property Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-06-21 CALL at $150.0 is a CALL option contract on Simon Property's common stock with a strick price of 150.0 expiring on 2024-06-21. The contract was last traded on 2024-06-17 at 14:30:11 for $0.5 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.45. The implied volatility as of the 18th of June 2024 is 22.84. View All Simon options

Closest to current price Simon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Simon Property's future price is the expected price of Simon Property instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Simon Property Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Simon Property Backtesting, Simon Property Valuation, Simon Property Correlation, Simon Property Hype Analysis, Simon Property Volatility, Simon Property History as well as Simon Property Performance.
  
At this time, Simon Property's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The Simon Property's current Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 24.37, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is forecasted to increase to (63.4 K). Please specify Simon Property's target price for which you would like Simon Property odds to be computed.

Simon Property Target Price Odds to finish over 148.83

The tendency of Simon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 148.83 90 days 148.83 
about 28.84
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Simon Property to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 28.84 (This Simon Property Group probability density function shows the probability of Simon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.53 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Simon Property will likely underperform. Additionally Simon Property Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Simon Property Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Simon Property

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Simon Property Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Simon Property's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
147.41148.85150.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
136.91138.35163.71
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
148.09149.53150.97
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
117.45129.07143.27
Details

Simon Property Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Simon Property is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Simon Property's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Simon Property Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Simon Property within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.02
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.53
σ
Overall volatility
4.14
Ir
Information ratio -0.0042

Simon Property Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Simon Property for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Simon Property Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Simon Property Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Simon Property Group has 26.52 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 6.23, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Simon Property Group has a current ratio of 0.37, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Simon to invest in growth at high rates of return.
Over 91.0% of Simon Property shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: J.C. Penney closing 4 stores in coming months

Simon Property Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Simon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Simon Property's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Simon Property's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding326.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.2 B

Simon Property Technical Analysis

Simon Property's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Simon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Simon Property Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Simon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Simon Property Predictive Forecast Models

Simon Property's time-series forecasting models is one of many Simon Property's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Simon Property's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Simon Property Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about Simon Property for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Simon Property Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Simon Property Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Simon Property Group has 26.52 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 6.23, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Simon Property Group has a current ratio of 0.37, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Simon to invest in growth at high rates of return.
Over 91.0% of Simon Property shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: J.C. Penney closing 4 stores in coming months

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Simon Stock

When determining whether Simon Property Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Simon Property's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Simon Property's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Simon Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Retail REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simon Property. If investors know Simon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Simon Property listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.627
Dividend Share
7.6
Earnings Share
7.84
Revenue Per Share
17.61
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.068
The market value of Simon Property Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simon Property's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simon Property's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simon Property's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simon Property's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simon Property's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Simon Property is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Simon Property's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.