Trican Well Service Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.96
| TCW Stock | CAD 4.27 0.01 0.23% |
Trican |
Trican Well Target Price Odds to finish below 2.96
The tendency of Trican Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 2.96 or more in 90 days |
| 4.27 | 90 days | 2.96 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trican Well to drop to C$ 2.96 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Trican Well Service probability density function shows the probability of Trican Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trican Well Service price to stay between C$ 2.96 and its current price of C$4.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Trican Well has a beta of 0.53. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Trican Well average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Trican Well Service will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Trican Well Service has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Trican Well Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Trican Well
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trican Well Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trican Well's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trican Well Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trican Well is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trican Well's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trican Well Service, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trican Well within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.0005 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Trican Well Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trican Well for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trican Well Service can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trican Well Service generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Trican Well Service is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Trican Well Service Ltd. Expected to Earn Q1 2024 Earnings of 0.18 Per Share - Defense World |
Trican Well Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trican Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trican Well's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trican Well's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 209.1 M |
Trican Well Technical Analysis
Trican Well's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trican Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trican Well Service. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trican Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trican Well Predictive Forecast Models
Trican Well's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trican Well's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trican Well's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trican Well Service
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trican Well for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trican Well Service help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trican Well Service generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Trican Well Service is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Trican Well Service Ltd. Expected to Earn Q1 2024 Earnings of 0.18 Per Share - Defense World |
Check out Trican Well Backtesting, Trican Well Valuation, Trican Well Correlation, Trican Well Hype Analysis, Trican Well Volatility, Trican Well History as well as Trican Well Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for Trican Stock analysis
When running Trican Well's price analysis, check to measure Trican Well's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trican Well is operating at the current time. Most of Trican Well's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trican Well's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trican Well's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trican Well to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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