Thungela Resources (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12964.0
| TGA Stock | 13,935 330.00 2.43% |
Thungela |
Thungela Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 12964.0
The tendency of Thungela Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12,964 or more in 90 days |
| 13,935 | 90 days | 12,964 | about 72.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thungela Resources to drop to 12,964 or more in 90 days from now is about 72.85 (This Thungela Resources Limited probability density function shows the probability of Thungela Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thungela Resources price to stay between 12,964 and its current price of 13935.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Thungela Resources Limited has a beta of -0.42. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Thungela Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Thungela Resources Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Thungela Resources Limited has an alpha of 0.4235, implying that it can generate a 0.42 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Thungela Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thungela Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thungela Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thungela Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thungela Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thungela Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thungela Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thungela Resources Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thungela Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.42 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1,522 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Thungela Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thungela Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thungela Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thungela Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 136.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.8 B |
Thungela Resources Technical Analysis
Thungela Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thungela Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thungela Resources Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thungela Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thungela Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Thungela Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Thungela Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thungela Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Thungela Resources in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Thungela Resources' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Thungela Resources options trading.
Check out Thungela Resources Backtesting, Thungela Resources Valuation, Thungela Resources Correlation, Thungela Resources Hype Analysis, Thungela Resources Volatility, Thungela Resources History as well as Thungela Resources Performance. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Thungela Stock analysis
When running Thungela Resources' price analysis, check to measure Thungela Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thungela Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Thungela Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thungela Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thungela Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thungela Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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