Thor Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 92.64

THO Stock  USD 92.64  2.23  2.47%   
Thor Industries' future price is the expected price of Thor Industries instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Thor Industries performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 20.55 this year, although Price to Book Value will most likely fall to 3.44.
  
Thor Industries' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Thor Industries. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Thor Industries based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Thor Industries over a specific time period. For example, 2023-02-17 CALL at $95.0 is a CALL option contract on Thor Industries' common stock with a strick price of 95.0 expiring on 2023-02-17. The contract was last traded on 2023-01-26 at 15:23:08 for $1.55 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.5, and an ask price of $1.8. The implied volatility as of the 27th of January is 36.5439. View All Thor Industries options

Closest to current price Thor Industries long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, take a look at Thor Industries Backtesting, Thor Industries Valuation, Thor Industries Correlation, Thor Industries Hype Analysis, Thor Industries Volatility, Thor Industries History as well as Thor Industries Performance. Please specify Thor Industries time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Thor Industries odds to be computed.

Thor Industries Target Price Odds to finish over 92.64

The tendency of Thor Industries Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 92.64 90 days 92.64 
under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thor Industries to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Thor Industries probability density function shows the probability of Thor Industries Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.67 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Thor Industries will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 2.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 1.84E-4 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Thor Industries Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Thor Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thor Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thor Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Thor Industries in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
90.9294.0297.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
83.57108.30111.40
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
83.7486.8389.93
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
115.00137.80150.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Thor Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Thor Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Thor Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Thor Industries.

Thor Industries Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thor Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thor Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thor Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thor Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.00018369
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.67
σ
Overall volatility
5.29
Ir
Information ratio 0.040563

Thor Industries Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thor Industries Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thor Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thor Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding55.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments311.6 M

Thor Industries Technical Analysis

Thor Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thor Industries Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thor Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thor Industries Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Thor Industries Predictive Forecast Models

Thor Industries time-series forecasting models is one of many Thor Industries' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Thor Industries' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Thor Industries Investors Sentiment

The influence of Thor Industries' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Thor Industries. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Thor Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Thor Industries. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Thor Industries can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Thor Industries. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Thor Industries' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Thor Industries' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Thor Industries' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Thor Industries.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Thor Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Thor Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Thor Industries options trading.
Additionally, take a look at Thor Industries Backtesting, Thor Industries Valuation, Thor Industries Correlation, Thor Industries Hype Analysis, Thor Industries Volatility, Thor Industries History as well as Thor Industries Performance. Note that the Thor Industries information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Thor Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Thor Industries Stock analysis

When running Thor Industries price analysis, check to measure Thor Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thor Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Thor Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thor Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thor Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thor Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Thor Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Thor Industries. If investors know Thor Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Thor Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.42) 
Market Capitalization
4.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.21) 
Return On Assets
0.1176
Return On Equity
0.304
The market value of Thor Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Thor Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Thor Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Thor Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Thor Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Thor Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Thor Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Thor Industries value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Thor Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.