Thor Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 102.84

THO Stock  USD 117.34  2.71  2.36%   
Thor Industries' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Thor Industries. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Thor Industries based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Thor Industries over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $115.0 is a CALL option contract on Thor Industries' common stock with a strick price of 115.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:59:43 for $4.2 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $4.0, and an ask price of $4.3. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 24.48. View All Thor options

Closest to current price Thor long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Thor Industries' future price is the expected price of Thor Industries instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Thor Industries performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Thor Industries Backtesting, Thor Industries Valuation, Thor Industries Correlation, Thor Industries Hype Analysis, Thor Industries Volatility, Thor Industries History as well as Thor Industries Performance.
To learn how to invest in Thor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Thor Industries guide.
  
At this time, Thor Industries' Price Earnings Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Price Book Value Ratio is likely to grow to 1.82, while Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 0.45. Please specify Thor Industries' target price for which you would like Thor Industries odds to be computed.

Thor Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 102.84

The tendency of Thor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 102.84  or more in 90 days
 117.34 90 days 102.84 
under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thor Industries to drop to $ 102.84  or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Thor Industries probability density function shows the probability of Thor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thor Industries price to stay between $ 102.84  and its current price of $117.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 59.98 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.28 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Thor Industries will likely underperform. Additionally Thor Industries has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Thor Industries Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Thor Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thor Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thor Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
114.74117.34119.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
98.46101.06129.07
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
126.29128.89131.49
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
83.2791.50101.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Thor Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Thor Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Thor Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Thor Industries.

Thor Industries Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thor Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thor Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thor Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thor Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.28
σ
Overall volatility
6.78
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Thor Industries Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thor Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thor Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Thor Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: THOR Industries jumps 6.6 percent this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

Thor Industries Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thor Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thor Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding53.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments441.2 M

Thor Industries Technical Analysis

Thor Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thor Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Thor Industries Predictive Forecast Models

Thor Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Thor Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thor Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Thor Industries

Checking the ongoing alerts about Thor Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thor Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Thor Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: THOR Industries jumps 6.6 percent this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns
When determining whether Thor Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Thor Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Thor Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Thor Industries Stock:
Check out Thor Industries Backtesting, Thor Industries Valuation, Thor Industries Correlation, Thor Industries Hype Analysis, Thor Industries Volatility, Thor Industries History as well as Thor Industries Performance.
To learn how to invest in Thor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Thor Industries guide.
Note that the Thor Industries information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Thor Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Thor Stock analysis

When running Thor Industries' price analysis, check to measure Thor Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thor Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Thor Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thor Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thor Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thor Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Thor Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Thor Industries. If investors know Thor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Thor Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.74)
Dividend Share
1.86
Earnings Share
5.17
Revenue Per Share
194.511
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Thor Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Thor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Thor Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Thor Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Thor Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Thor Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Thor Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Thor Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Thor Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.