Tiaa Cref Lifecycle Index Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 18.05
| TLWIX Fund | USD 18.81 0.13 0.70% |
Tiaa |
Tiaa Cref Target Price Odds to finish below 18.05
The tendency of Tiaa Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 18.05 or more in 90 days |
| 18.81 | 90 days | 18.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tiaa Cref to drop to $ 18.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Tiaa Cref Lifecycle Index probability density function shows the probability of Tiaa Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tiaa Cref Lifecycle price to stay between $ 18.05 and its current price of $18.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.02 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Tiaa Cref has a beta of 0.0275. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Tiaa Cref average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Tiaa Cref Lifecycle Index will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Tiaa Cref Lifecycle Index has an alpha of 0.0235, implying that it can generate a 0.0235 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Tiaa Cref Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Tiaa Cref
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tiaa Cref Lifecycle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tiaa Cref's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tiaa Cref Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tiaa Cref is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tiaa Cref's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tiaa Cref Lifecycle Index, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tiaa Cref within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Tiaa Cref Technical Analysis
Tiaa Cref's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tiaa Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tiaa Cref Lifecycle Index. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tiaa Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tiaa Cref Predictive Forecast Models
Tiaa Cref's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tiaa Cref's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tiaa Cref's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Tiaa Cref in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Tiaa Cref's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Tiaa Cref options trading.
Check out Tiaa Cref Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Tiaa Cref Correlation, Tiaa Cref Hype Analysis, Tiaa Cref Volatility, Tiaa Cref History as well as Tiaa Cref Performance. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.