Uber Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.81

UBER Stock  USD 30.93  0.57  1.88%   
Uber Technologies' future price is the expected price of Uber Technologies instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Uber Technologies performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Uber Technologies' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Uber Technologies. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Uber Technologies based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Uber Technologies over a specific time period. For example, 2023-02-03 CALL at $31.0 is a CALL option contract on Uber Technologies' common stock with a strick price of 31.0 expiring on 2023-02-03. The contract was last traded on 2023-01-30 at 15:56:45 for $0.22 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.21, and an ask price of $0.24. The implied volatility as of the 31st of January is 55.174. View All Uber Technologies options

Closest to current price Uber Technologies long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Uber Technologies Backtesting, Uber Technologies Valuation, Uber Technologies Correlation, Uber Technologies Hype Analysis, Uber Technologies Volatility, Uber Technologies History as well as Uber Technologies Performance. Please specify Uber Technologies time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Uber Technologies odds to be computed.

Uber Technologies Target Price Odds to finish below 23.81

The tendency of Uber Technologies Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 23.81  or more in 90 days
 30.93 90 days 23.81 
about 1.2
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Uber Technologies to drop to $ 23.81  or more in 90 days from now is about 1.2 (This Uber Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Uber Technologies Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Uber Technologies price to stay between $ 23.81  and its current price of $30.93 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.49 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Uber Technologies has a beta of -0.47. This usually implies as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Uber Technologies are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Uber Technologies is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2385, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Uber Technologies Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Uber Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Uber Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Uber Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Uber Technologies in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
28.6531.3434.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.6839.1441.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
26.5329.2231.92
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0070.2682.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Uber Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Uber Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Uber Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Uber Technologies.

Uber Technologies Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Uber Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Uber Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Uber Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Uber Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.24
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.47
σ
Overall volatility
1.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.013752

Uber Technologies Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Uber Technologies Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Uber Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Uber Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.9 B
Cash And Short Term Investments4.3 B

Uber Technologies Technical Analysis

Uber Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Uber Technologies Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Uber Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Uber Technologies Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Uber Technologies Predictive Forecast Models

Uber Technologies time-series forecasting models is one of many Uber Technologies' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Uber Technologies' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Uber Technologies Investors Sentiment

The influence of Uber Technologies' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Uber Technologies. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Uber Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Uber Technologies. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Uber Technologies can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Uber Technologies. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Uber Technologies' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Uber Technologies' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Uber Technologies' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Uber Technologies.

Uber Technologies Implied Volatility

    
  57.82  
Uber Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Uber Technologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Uber Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Uber Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Uber Technologies' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Uber Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Uber Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Uber Technologies options trading.
Also, please take a look at Uber Technologies Backtesting, Uber Technologies Valuation, Uber Technologies Correlation, Uber Technologies Hype Analysis, Uber Technologies Volatility, Uber Technologies History as well as Uber Technologies Performance. Note that the Uber Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Uber Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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When running Uber Technologies price analysis, check to measure Uber Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Uber Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Uber Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Uber Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Uber Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Uber Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Uber Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Uber Technologies. If investors know Uber Technologies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Uber Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
60.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.722
Return On Assets
(0.0412) 
Return On Equity
(87.67) 
The market value of Uber Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Uber Technologies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Uber Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Uber Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Uber Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Uber Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Uber Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Uber Technologies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Uber Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.