Unitedhealth Group Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 454.56

UNH Stock  USD 493.10  0.79  0.16%   
UnitedHealth Group's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. Implied volatility approximates the future value of UnitedHealth Group based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in UnitedHealth Group Incorporated over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $492.5 is a CALL option contract on UnitedHealth Group's common stock with a strick price of 492.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:54:27 for $2.2 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.02, and an ask price of $2.54. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 18.18. View All UnitedHealth options

Closest to current price UnitedHealth long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

UnitedHealth Group's future price is the expected price of UnitedHealth Group instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out UnitedHealth Group Backtesting, UnitedHealth Group Valuation, UnitedHealth Group Correlation, UnitedHealth Group Hype Analysis, UnitedHealth Group Volatility, UnitedHealth Group History as well as UnitedHealth Group Performance.
  
The UnitedHealth Group's current Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is estimated to increase to 2.06, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to 14.10. Please specify UnitedHealth Group's target price for which you would like UnitedHealth Group odds to be computed.

UnitedHealth Group Target Price Odds to finish over 454.56

The tendency of UnitedHealth Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 454.56  in 90 days
 493.10 90 days 454.56 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UnitedHealth Group to stay above $ 454.56  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This UnitedHealth Group Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of UnitedHealth Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UnitedHealth Group price to stay between $ 454.56  and its current price of $493.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.85 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon UnitedHealth Group Incorporated has a beta of -0.12. This usually implies as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding UnitedHealth Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is likely to outperform the market. Additionally UnitedHealth Group Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   UnitedHealth Group Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for UnitedHealth Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UnitedHealth Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UnitedHealth Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
491.81493.10494.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
433.76435.05542.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
515.51516.80518.08
Details
27 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
507.95558.19619.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UnitedHealth Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UnitedHealth Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UnitedHealth Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in UnitedHealth Group.

UnitedHealth Group Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UnitedHealth Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UnitedHealth Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UnitedHealth Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.06
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.12
σ
Overall volatility
18.03
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

UnitedHealth Group Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UnitedHealth Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UnitedHealth Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UnitedHealth Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 67.44 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.59, which is OK given its current industry classification. UnitedHealth Group has a current ratio of 0.76, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist UnitedHealth Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, UnitedHealth Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like UnitedHealth Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for UnitedHealth to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about UnitedHealth Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 90.0% of UnitedHealth Group outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 19th of March 2024 UnitedHealth Group paid $ 1.88 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: UnitedHealth Group Ascends While Market Falls Some Facts to Note

UnitedHealth Group Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UnitedHealth Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UnitedHealth Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UnitedHealth Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding938 M
Cash And Short Term Investments29.6 B

UnitedHealth Group Technical Analysis

UnitedHealth Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UnitedHealth Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing UnitedHealth Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

UnitedHealth Group Predictive Forecast Models

UnitedHealth Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many UnitedHealth Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UnitedHealth Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about UnitedHealth Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about UnitedHealth Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UnitedHealth Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UnitedHealth Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 67.44 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.59, which is OK given its current industry classification. UnitedHealth Group has a current ratio of 0.76, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist UnitedHealth Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, UnitedHealth Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like UnitedHealth Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for UnitedHealth to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about UnitedHealth Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 90.0% of UnitedHealth Group outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 19th of March 2024 UnitedHealth Group paid $ 1.88 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: UnitedHealth Group Ascends While Market Falls Some Facts to Note
When determining whether UnitedHealth Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of UnitedHealth Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Unitedhealth Group Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Unitedhealth Group Incorporated Stock:

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When running UnitedHealth Group's price analysis, check to measure UnitedHealth Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UnitedHealth Group is operating at the current time. Most of UnitedHealth Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UnitedHealth Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UnitedHealth Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UnitedHealth Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UnitedHealth Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UnitedHealth Group. If investors know UnitedHealth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UnitedHealth Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.16
Dividend Share
7.29
Earnings Share
23.88
Revenue Per Share
400.455
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.141
The market value of UnitedHealth Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UnitedHealth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UnitedHealth Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UnitedHealth Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UnitedHealth Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UnitedHealth Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UnitedHealth Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UnitedHealth Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UnitedHealth Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.