Unitedhealth Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 522.0

UNH -  USA Stock  

USD 439.91  10.25  2.28%

Unitedhealth's future price is the expected price of Unitedhealth instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Unitedhealth Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 0.98, while Price to Book Value is projected to decrease to 4.44.

Unitedhealth Price Probability 

 
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Unitedhealth's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Unitedhealth Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Unitedhealth based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Unitedhealth Group over a specific time period. For example, 2021-12-03 CALL at $440.0 is a CALL option contract on Unitedhealth's common stock with a strick price of 440.0 expiring on 2021-12-03. The contract was last traded on 2021-11-26 at 12:38:16 for $8.1 and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $6.15, and an ask price of $8.15. The implied volatility as of the 28th of November is 33.7012. View All Unitedhealth options

Closest to current price Unitedhealth long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Unitedhealth Backtesting, Unitedhealth Valuation, Unitedhealth Correlation, Unitedhealth Hype Analysis, Unitedhealth Volatility, Unitedhealth History as well as Unitedhealth Performance. Please specify Unitedhealth time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Unitedhealth odds to be computed.
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Unitedhealth Target Price Odds to finish over 522.0

The tendency of Unitedhealth Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 522.00  or more in 90 days
 439.91 90 days 522.00  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Unitedhealth to move over $ 522.00  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Unitedhealth Group probability density function shows the probability of Unitedhealth Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Unitedhealth Group price to stay between its current price of $ 439.91  and $ 522.00  at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.58 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Unitedhealth will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1087, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Unitedhealth Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Unitedhealth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Unitedhealth Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Unitedhealth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Unitedhealth in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
438.51439.81441.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
395.92465.37466.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
442.98444.28445.58
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
435.00480.67522.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Unitedhealth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Unitedhealth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Unitedhealth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Unitedhealth Group.

Unitedhealth Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Unitedhealth is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Unitedhealth's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Unitedhealth Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Unitedhealth within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.11
β
Beta against DOW1.18
σ
Overall volatility
22.33
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Unitedhealth Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Unitedhealth for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Unitedhealth Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 48.22 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.66, which is OK given its current industry classification. Unitedhealth Group has a current ratio of 0.7, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
Over 89.0% of Unitedhealth outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.usatoday.com: Whys the Dow down while the SP and Nasdaq are hitting record highs - USA TODAY

Unitedhealth Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Unitedhealth Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Unitedhealth's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Unitedhealth's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.68%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate5.00
Short Percent Of Float0.68%
Float Shares937.7M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.7M
Shares Short Prior Month6.59M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.72M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.11%

Unitedhealth Technical Analysis

Unitedhealth's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Unitedhealth Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Unitedhealth Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Unitedhealth Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Unitedhealth Predictive Forecast Models

Unitedhealth time-series forecasting models is one of many Unitedhealth's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Unitedhealth's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Unitedhealth Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about Unitedhealth for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Unitedhealth Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Unitedhealth Alerts

Unitedhealth Alerts and Suggestions

The company has 48.22 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.66, which is OK given its current industry classification. Unitedhealth Group has a current ratio of 0.7, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
Over 89.0% of Unitedhealth outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.usatoday.com: Whys the Dow down while the SP and Nasdaq are hitting record highs - USA TODAY
Also, please take a look at Unitedhealth Backtesting, Unitedhealth Valuation, Unitedhealth Correlation, Unitedhealth Hype Analysis, Unitedhealth Volatility, Unitedhealth History as well as Unitedhealth Performance. Note that the Unitedhealth Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Unitedhealth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for Unitedhealth Stock analysis

When running Unitedhealth Group price analysis, check to measure Unitedhealth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Unitedhealth is operating at the current time. Most of Unitedhealth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Unitedhealth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Unitedhealth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Unitedhealth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Unitedhealth's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Unitedhealth. If investors know Unitedhealth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Unitedhealth listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Unitedhealth Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Unitedhealth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Unitedhealth's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Unitedhealth's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Unitedhealth's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Unitedhealth's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Unitedhealth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Unitedhealth value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Unitedhealth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.