Union Pacific Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 209.67

UNP Stock  USD 246.05  1.42  0.58%   
Union Pacific's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Union Pacific. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Union Pacific based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Union Pacific over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $245.0 is a CALL option contract on Union Pacific's common stock with a strick price of 245.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:56:11 for $0.75 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.6, and an ask price of $0.8. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 18.01. View All Union options

Closest to current price Union long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Union Pacific's future price is the expected price of Union Pacific instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Union Pacific performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Union Pacific Backtesting, Union Pacific Valuation, Union Pacific Correlation, Union Pacific Hype Analysis, Union Pacific Volatility, Union Pacific History as well as Union Pacific Performance.
To learn how to invest in Union Stock, please use our How to Invest in Union Pacific guide.
  
At this time, Union Pacific's Price To Sales Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price Book Value Ratio is likely to grow to 10.62, while Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 18.86. Please specify Union Pacific's target price for which you would like Union Pacific odds to be computed.

Union Pacific Target Price Odds to finish over 209.67

The tendency of Union Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 209.67  in 90 days
 246.05 90 days 209.67 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Union Pacific to stay above $ 209.67  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Union Pacific probability density function shows the probability of Union Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Union Pacific price to stay between $ 209.67  and its current price of $246.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.01 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Union Pacific has a beta of 0.98. This usually implies Union Pacific market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Union Pacific is expected to follow. Additionally Union Pacific has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Union Pacific Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Union Pacific

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Union Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
243.67244.60245.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
242.04242.97269.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
240.60241.53242.45
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
219.38241.08267.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Union Pacific. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Union Pacific's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Union Pacific's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Union Pacific.

Union Pacific Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Union Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Union Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Union Pacific, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Union Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.1
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.98
σ
Overall volatility
5.30
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Union Pacific Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Union Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Union Pacific can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 34.18 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.98, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Union Pacific has a current ratio of 0.75, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Union Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Pacific sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 82.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: U.S. weekly rail traffic rises 2.1 percent year-over-year

Union Pacific Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Union Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Union Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Union Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding610.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.1 B

Union Pacific Technical Analysis

Union Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Union Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Union Pacific. In general, you should focus on analyzing Union Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Union Pacific Predictive Forecast Models

Union Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many Union Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Union Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Union Pacific

Checking the ongoing alerts about Union Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Union Pacific help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 34.18 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.98, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Union Pacific has a current ratio of 0.75, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Union Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Pacific sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 82.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: U.S. weekly rail traffic rises 2.1 percent year-over-year
When determining whether Union Pacific is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Union Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Union Pacific Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Union Pacific Stock:

Complementary Tools for Union Stock analysis

When running Union Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Union Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Union Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Union Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Union Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Union Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Union Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Union Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Union Pacific. If investors know Union will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Union Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.012
Dividend Share
5.2
Earnings Share
10.45
Revenue Per Share
39.591
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Union Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Union that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Union Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Union Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Union Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Union Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Union Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.