Uol Group Ltd Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 16.19

UOLGY Stock  USD 16.19  0.23  1.40%   
UOL Group's future price is the expected price of UOL Group instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of UOL Group Ltd performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out UOL Group Backtesting, UOL Group Valuation, UOL Group Correlation, UOL Group Hype Analysis, UOL Group Volatility, UOL Group History as well as UOL Group Performance.
  
Please specify UOL Group's target price for which you would like UOL Group odds to be computed.

UOL Group Target Price Odds to finish over 16.19

The tendency of UOL Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 16.19 90 days 16.19 
about 78.36
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UOL Group to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 78.36 (This UOL Group Ltd probability density function shows the probability of UOL Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon UOL Group has a beta of 0.62. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, UOL Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UOL Group Ltd will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UOL Group Ltd has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   UOL Group Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for UOL Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UOL Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UOL Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.9816.1917.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.2716.4817.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
14.3515.5616.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.1916.5216.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UOL Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UOL Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UOL Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in UOL Group.

UOL Group Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UOL Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UOL Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UOL Group Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UOL Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.62
σ
Overall volatility
0.51
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

UOL Group Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UOL Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UOL Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UOL Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

UOL Group Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UOL Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UOL Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UOL Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding844.3 M

UOL Group Technical Analysis

UOL Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UOL Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UOL Group Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing UOL Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

UOL Group Predictive Forecast Models

UOL Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many UOL Group's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UOL Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about UOL Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about UOL Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UOL Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UOL Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Check out UOL Group Backtesting, UOL Group Valuation, UOL Group Correlation, UOL Group Hype Analysis, UOL Group Volatility, UOL Group History as well as UOL Group Performance.
Note that the UOL Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UOL Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for UOL Pink Sheet analysis

When running UOL Group's price analysis, check to measure UOL Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UOL Group is operating at the current time. Most of UOL Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UOL Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UOL Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UOL Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between UOL Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UOL Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UOL Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.