Urban Outfitters Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.37
| URBN Stock | USD 39.36 0.80 2.07% |
Closest to current price Urban long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Urban |
Urban Outfitters Target Price Odds to finish over 20.37
The tendency of Urban Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 20.37 in 90 days |
| 39.36 | 90 days | 20.37 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Urban Outfitters to stay above $ 20.37 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Urban Outfitters probability density function shows the probability of Urban Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Urban Outfitters price to stay between $ 20.37 and its current price of $39.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.32 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Urban Outfitters will likely underperform. Additionally Urban Outfitters has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Urban Outfitters Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Urban Outfitters
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Urban Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Urban Outfitters' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Urban Outfitters Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Urban Outfitters is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Urban Outfitters' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Urban Outfitters, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Urban Outfitters within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Urban Outfitters Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Urban Outfitters for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Urban Outfitters can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Urban Outfitters has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Are Investors Undervaluing Urban Outfitters, Inc. By 32 |
Urban Outfitters Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Urban Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Urban Outfitters' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Urban Outfitters' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 465.1 M |
Urban Outfitters Technical Analysis
Urban Outfitters' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Urban Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Urban Outfitters. In general, you should focus on analyzing Urban Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Urban Outfitters Predictive Forecast Models
Urban Outfitters' time-series forecasting models is one of many Urban Outfitters' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Urban Outfitters' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Urban Outfitters
Checking the ongoing alerts about Urban Outfitters for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Urban Outfitters help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Urban Outfitters has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Are Investors Undervaluing Urban Outfitters, Inc. By 32 |
Check out Urban Outfitters Backtesting, Urban Outfitters Valuation, Urban Outfitters Correlation, Urban Outfitters Hype Analysis, Urban Outfitters Volatility, Urban Outfitters History as well as Urban Outfitters Performance. To learn how to invest in Urban Stock, please use our How to Invest in Urban Outfitters guide.Note that the Urban Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Urban Outfitters' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Complementary Tools for Urban Stock analysis
When running Urban Outfitters' price analysis, check to measure Urban Outfitters' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Urban Outfitters is operating at the current time. Most of Urban Outfitters' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Urban Outfitters' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Urban Outfitters' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Urban Outfitters to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Urban Outfitters' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.479 | Earnings Share 3.05 | Revenue Per Share 55.592 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.073 | Return On Assets 0.0622 |
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Urban Outfitters is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.