BANK NEW YORK Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 111.16
| 06406YAA0 | 90.15 0.40 0.44% |
06406YAA0 |
06406YAA0 Target Price Odds to finish over 111.16
The tendency of 06406YAA0 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 111.16 or more in 90 days |
| 90.15 | 90 days | 111.16 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 06406YAA0 to move over 111.16 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This BANK NEW YORK probability density function shows the probability of 06406YAA0 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BANK NEW YORK price to stay between its current price of 90.15 and 111.16 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BANK NEW YORK has a beta of -0.0703. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 06406YAA0 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, BANK NEW YORK is likely to outperform the market. Additionally BANK NEW YORK has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. 06406YAA0 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 06406YAA0
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BANK NEW YORK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 06406YAA0's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
06406YAA0 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 06406YAA0 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 06406YAA0's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BANK NEW YORK, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 06406YAA0 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
06406YAA0 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 06406YAA0 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BANK NEW YORK can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BANK NEW YORK generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
06406YAA0 Technical Analysis
06406YAA0's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 06406YAA0 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BANK NEW YORK. In general, you should focus on analyzing 06406YAA0 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
06406YAA0 Predictive Forecast Models
06406YAA0's time-series forecasting models is one of many 06406YAA0's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 06406YAA0's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BANK NEW YORK
Checking the ongoing alerts about 06406YAA0 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BANK NEW YORK help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BANK NEW YORK generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Check out 06406YAA0 Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, 06406YAA0 Correlation, 06406YAA0 Hype Analysis, 06406YAA0 Volatility, 06406YAA0 History as well as 06406YAA0 Performance. Note that the BANK NEW YORK information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other 06406YAA0's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.