HUMANA INC Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 84.12
| 444859BR2 | 84.12 6.34 8.15% |
HUMANA |
HUMANA Target Price Odds to finish over 84.12
The tendency of HUMANA Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 84.12 | 90 days | 84.12 | about 27.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HUMANA to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 27.79 (This HUMANA INC probability density function shows the probability of HUMANA Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon HUMANA has a beta of 0.3. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, HUMANA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding HUMANA INC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally HUMANA INC has an alpha of 0.1021, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). HUMANA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for HUMANA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HUMANA INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HUMANA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HUMANA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HUMANA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HUMANA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HUMANA INC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HUMANA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
HUMANA Technical Analysis
HUMANA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HUMANA Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HUMANA INC. In general, you should focus on analyzing HUMANA Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HUMANA Predictive Forecast Models
HUMANA's time-series forecasting models is one of many HUMANA's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HUMANA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards HUMANA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, HUMANA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from HUMANA options trading.
Check out HUMANA Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, HUMANA Correlation, HUMANA Hype Analysis, HUMANA Volatility, HUMANA History as well as HUMANA Performance. Note that the HUMANA INC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other HUMANA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.