Vanguard Health Care Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 131.21
| VHCIX Fund | USD 131.85 0.34 0.26% |
Vanguard |
Vanguard Health Target Price Odds to finish below 131.21
The tendency of Vanguard Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 131.21 or more in 90 days |
| 131.85 | 90 days | 131.21 | about 43.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Health to drop to $ 131.21 or more in 90 days from now is about 43.87 (This Vanguard Health Care probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Health Care price to stay between $ 131.21 and its current price of $131.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.95 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard Health has a beta of 0.88. This entails Vanguard Health Care market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vanguard Health is expected to follow. Additionally Vanguard Health Care has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Vanguard Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Health Care. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Health Care, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Vanguard Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Health Care can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vanguard Health Care generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund keeps 99.49% of its net assets in stocks |
Vanguard Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Vanguard Health Technical Analysis
Vanguard Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Health Care. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard Health Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Health's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vanguard Health Care
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Health Care help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vanguard Health Care generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund keeps 99.49% of its net assets in stocks |
Check out Vanguard Health Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Health Correlation, Vanguard Health Hype Analysis, Vanguard Health Volatility, Vanguard Health History as well as Vanguard Health Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.