Vanguard Etf Odds of Future Etf Price Finishing Over 372.87

VOO Etf  USD 372.87  1.06  0.29%   
Vanguard's future price is the expected price of Vanguard instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vanguard SP 500 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Vanguard's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Vanguard SP 500. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Vanguard based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Vanguard SP 500 over a specific time period. For example, 2023-02-17 CALL at $375.0 is a CALL option contract on Vanguard's common stock with a strick price of 375.0 expiring on 2023-02-17. The contract was last traded on 2023-01-26 at 15:57:39 for $5.29 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $5.1, and an ask price of $5.5. The implied volatility as of the 27th of January is 17.7918. View All Vanguard options

Closest to current price Vanguard long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Vanguard Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Correlation, Vanguard Hype Analysis, Vanguard Volatility, Vanguard History as well as Vanguard Performance. Please specify Vanguard time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vanguard odds to be computed.

Vanguard Target Price Odds to finish over 372.87

The tendency of Vanguard Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 372.87 90 days 372.87 
under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Vanguard SP 500 probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the etf has the beta coefficient of 1.16 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vanguard will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Vanguard SP 500 is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Vanguard Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vanguard

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard SP 500. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vanguard in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
373.67375.03376.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
341.31342.67411.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
367.01368.37369.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
353.37360.52367.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanguard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanguard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanguard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vanguard SP 500.

Vanguard Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard SP 500, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.09
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.16
σ
Overall volatility
8.52
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Vanguard Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate5.30
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.08M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.6M
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.46%

Vanguard Technical Analysis

Vanguard's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard SP 500. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vanguard Predictive Forecast Models

Vanguard time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard's etf analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Vanguard's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Vanguard Implied Volatility

    
  20.03  
Vanguard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vanguard SP 500 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vanguard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vanguard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vanguard's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vanguard in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vanguard's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vanguard options trading.
Also, please take a look at Vanguard Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Correlation, Vanguard Hype Analysis, Vanguard Volatility, Vanguard History as well as Vanguard Performance. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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When running Vanguard SP 500 price analysis, check to measure Vanguard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vanguard is operating at the current time. Most of Vanguard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vanguard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vanguard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vanguard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Vanguard SP 500 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vanguard value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.