Vivint Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.38

VVNT -  USA Stock  

USD 6.38  0.38  5.62%

Vivint Smart's future price is the expected price of Vivint Smart instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vivint Smart Home performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Vivint Price Probability 

 
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Vivint Smart's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Vivint Smart Home. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Vivint Smart based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Vivint Smart Home over a specific time period. For example, 2022-02-18 CALL at $7.5 is a CALL option contract on Vivint Smart's common stock with a strick price of 7.5 expiring on 2022-02-18. The contract was last traded on 2022-01-25 at 10:16:21 for $0.25 and, as of today, has 23 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.4. The implied volatility as of the 26th of January is 82.2878. View All Vivint options

Closest to current price Vivint long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Also, please take a look at Vivint Smart Backtesting, Vivint Smart Valuation, Vivint Smart Correlation, Vivint Smart Hype Analysis, Vivint Smart Volatility, Vivint Smart History as well as Vivint Smart Performance. Please specify Vivint Smart time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vivint Smart odds to be computed.
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Vivint Smart Target Price Odds to finish over 6.38

The tendency of Vivint Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 6.38 90 days 6.38  about 99.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vivint Smart to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This Vivint Smart Home probability density function shows the probability of Vivint Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vivint Smart will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Vivint Smart Home is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Vivint Smart Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Vivint Smart

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vivint Smart Home. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vivint Smart's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vivint Smart in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.336.2811.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.056.0010.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vivint Smart. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vivint Smart's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vivint Smart's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vivint Smart Home.

Vivint Smart Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vivint Smart is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vivint Smart's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vivint Smart Home, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vivint Smart within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.21
β
Beta against DOW1.97
σ
Overall volatility
1.41
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Vivint Smart Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vivint Smart for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vivint Smart Home can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vivint Smart Home generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Vivint Smart Home has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Vivint Smart Home has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 2.77 B in liabilities. Vivint Smart Home has a current ratio of 0.45, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.42 B. Net Loss for the year was (428.74 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 908.22 M.
Over 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from industrialit.com.au: Smart Home Monitoring and Security Market 2022 Evolution Opportunities, Demands and Growth Revenue- Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, Honeywell International, Vivint Smart Home Security, SimpliSafe, Ring and Samsung, Bosch Security and S - Industrial IT

Vivint Smart Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vivint Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vivint Smart's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vivint Smart's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.27%
Short Percent Of Float4.06%
Float Shares31.44M
Shares Short Prior Month2.04M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day603.91k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month562.67k
Date Short Interest15th of December 2021

Vivint Smart Technical Analysis

Vivint Smart's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vivint Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vivint Smart Home. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vivint Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vivint Smart Predictive Forecast Models

Vivint Smart time-series forecasting models is one of many Vivint Smart's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Vivint Smart's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vivint Smart Home

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vivint Smart for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vivint Smart Home help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Vivint Smart Alerts

Vivint Smart Alerts and Suggestions

Vivint Smart Home generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Vivint Smart Home has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Vivint Smart Home has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 2.77 B in liabilities. Vivint Smart Home has a current ratio of 0.45, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.42 B. Net Loss for the year was (428.74 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 908.22 M.
Over 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from industrialit.com.au: Smart Home Monitoring and Security Market 2022 Evolution Opportunities, Demands and Growth Revenue- Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, Honeywell International, Vivint Smart Home Security, SimpliSafe, Ring and Samsung, Bosch Security and S - Industrial IT
Also, please take a look at Vivint Smart Backtesting, Vivint Smart Valuation, Vivint Smart Correlation, Vivint Smart Hype Analysis, Vivint Smart Volatility, Vivint Smart History as well as Vivint Smart Performance. Note that the Vivint Smart Home information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vivint Smart's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Vivint Stock analysis

When running Vivint Smart Home price analysis, check to measure Vivint Smart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vivint Smart is operating at the current time. Most of Vivint Smart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vivint Smart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vivint Smart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vivint Smart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vivint Smart's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vivint Smart. If investors know Vivint will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vivint Smart listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Vivint Smart Home is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vivint that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vivint Smart's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vivint Smart's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vivint Smart's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vivint Smart's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vivint Smart's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vivint Smart value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vivint Smart's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.