Wijaya Karya (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 158.32
| WIKA Stock | IDR 88.00 5.00 5.38% |
Wijaya |
Wijaya Karya Target Price Odds to finish over 158.32
The tendency of Wijaya Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 158.32 or more in 90 days |
| 88.00 | 90 days | 158.32 | about 74.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Wijaya Karya to move over 158.32 or more in 90 days from now is about 74.88 (This Wijaya Karya Beton probability density function shows the probability of Wijaya Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Wijaya Karya Beton price to stay between its current price of 88.00 and 158.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Wijaya Karya has a beta of 0.18. This entails as returns on the market go up, Wijaya Karya average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Wijaya Karya Beton will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Wijaya Karya Beton has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Wijaya Karya Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Wijaya Karya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wijaya Karya Beton. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wijaya Karya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Wijaya Karya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Wijaya Karya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Wijaya Karya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Wijaya Karya Beton, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Wijaya Karya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -1.44 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 55.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.36 |
Wijaya Karya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Wijaya Karya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Wijaya Karya Beton can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Wijaya Karya Beton generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Wijaya Karya Beton has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Wijaya Karya generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Wijaya Karya Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Wijaya Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Wijaya Karya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Wijaya Karya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7 T |
Wijaya Karya Technical Analysis
Wijaya Karya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Wijaya Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Wijaya Karya Beton. In general, you should focus on analyzing Wijaya Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Wijaya Karya Predictive Forecast Models
Wijaya Karya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Wijaya Karya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Wijaya Karya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Wijaya Karya Beton
Checking the ongoing alerts about Wijaya Karya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Wijaya Karya Beton help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Wijaya Karya Beton generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Wijaya Karya Beton has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Wijaya Karya generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Wijaya Stock
Wijaya Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Wijaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Wijaya with respect to the benefits of owning Wijaya Karya security.