Encore Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 135.95

WIRE Stock  USD 166.00  4.57  2.83%   
Encore Wire's future price is the expected price of Encore Wire instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Encore Wire performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 1.88, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are forecasted to decline to 23.43.
  
Encore Wire's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Encore Wire. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Encore Wire based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Encore Wire over a specific time period. For example, 2023-02-17 CALL at $165.0 is a CALL option contract on Encore Wire's common stock with a strick price of 165.0 expiring on 2023-02-17. The contract was last traded on 2023-02-01 at 14:29:14 for $6.19 and, as of today, has 15 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $7.0, and an ask price of $9.2. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of February is 53.8047. View All Encore options

Closest to current price Encore long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out Encore Wire Backtesting, Encore Wire Valuation, Encore Wire Correlation, Encore Wire Hype Analysis, Encore Wire Volatility, Encore Wire History as well as Encore Wire Performance. Please specify Encore Wire time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Encore Wire odds to be computed.

Encore Wire Target Price Odds to finish below 135.95

The tendency of Encore Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 135.95  or more in 90 days
 166.00 90 days 135.95 
about 11.44
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Encore Wire to drop to $ 135.95  or more in 90 days from now is about 11.44 (This Encore Wire probability density function shows the probability of Encore Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Encore Wire price to stay between $ 135.95  and its current price of $166.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.39 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.21 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Encore Wire will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1017, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Encore Wire Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Encore Wire

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Encore Wire. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Encore Wire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Encore Wire in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
165.16167.23169.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
155.10157.17182.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
167.32169.39171.46
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
150.00150.00150.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Encore Wire. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Encore Wire's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Encore Wire's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Encore Wire.

Encore Wire Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Encore Wire is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Encore Wire's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Encore Wire, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Encore Wire within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.10
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.21
σ
Overall volatility
6.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Encore Wire Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Encore Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Encore Wire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Encore Wire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding20.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments439 M

Encore Wire Technical Analysis

Encore Wire's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Encore Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Encore Wire. In general, you should focus on analyzing Encore Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Encore Wire Predictive Forecast Models

Encore Wire time-series forecasting models is one of many Encore Wire's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Encore Wire's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Encore Wire Investors Sentiment

The influence of Encore Wire's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Encore. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Encore Wire's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Encore. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Encore can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Encore Wire. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Encore Wire's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Encore Wire's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Encore Wire's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Encore Wire.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Encore Wire in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Encore Wire's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Encore Wire options trading.
Check out Encore Wire Backtesting, Encore Wire Valuation, Encore Wire Correlation, Encore Wire Hype Analysis, Encore Wire Volatility, Encore Wire History as well as Encore Wire Performance. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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Is Encore Wire's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Encore Wire. If investors know Encore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Encore Wire listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.172
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.064
Return On Assets
0.3452
Return On Equity
0.488
The market value of Encore Wire is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Encore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Encore Wire's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Encore Wire's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Encore Wire's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Encore Wire's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Encore Wire's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Encore Wire value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Encore Wire's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.