Alcoa Corp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AA Stock  USD 31.03  0.59  1.94%   
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Alcoa Corp is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Alcoa Corp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alcoa Corp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Osisko Gold Ro's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
30.45
Target Price
35.27
Hype Value
31.04
Market Value
31.03
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Alcoa Corp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Alcoa Corp. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Alcoa Corp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Alcoa Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Alcoa and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Alcoa Corp. Also, note that the market value of any Company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.

Execute Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice

The Alcoa recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alcoa Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alcoa Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alcoa Corp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Alcoa CorpBuy Alcoa Corp
Cautious Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Alcoa Corp has a Mean Deviation of 2.95, Semi Deviation of 3.14, Standard Deviation of 3.93, Variance of 15.46, Downside Variance of 11.68 and Semi Variance of 9.87
Our advice module can be used to complement Alcoa Corp investment recommendation provided by average analyst sentiment. It analyzes the company's potential to grow using fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Alcoa Corp is not overpriced, please confirm all Alcoa Corp fundamentals, including its profit margin, shares owned by insiders, price to book, as well as the relationship between the current valuation and number of shares shorted . Given that Alcoa Corp has a price to earning of 9.32 X, we suggest you to validate Alcoa Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Alcoa Corp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Alcoa Corp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company generated the yearly revenue of 10.55 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (773 M) with gross profit of 2.31 B.
Alcoa Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from thehill.com: How to avoid being laid off

Alcoa Corp Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Alcoa Corp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alcoa Corp stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alcoa Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alcoa Corp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alcoa Corp.
Mean Return
0.47
Value At Risk
-5.45
Potential Upside
6.22
Standard Deviation
3.93
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alcoa Corp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Alcoa Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Alcoa Corp's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Alcoa Corp's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-09-30
2.7 M
Balyasny Asset Management Llc2023-09-30
2.3 M
Slate Path Capital Lp2023-09-30
2.2 M
Pointstate Capital Lp2023-09-30
2.1 M
Capital Research Global Investors2023-09-30
1.6 M
Amundi2023-09-30
1.6 M
Jpmorgan Chase & Co2023-09-30
1.6 M
D. E. Shaw & Co Lp2023-09-30
1.5 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
1.3 M
Blackrock Inc2023-09-30
21.4 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-09-30
18 M
Note, although Alcoa Corp's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Alcoa Corp Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory137M122M(639M)(547M)243M255.2M
Change In Cash(233M)727M314M(450M)(427M)(405.7M)
Free Cash Flow307M41M530M342M(440M)(418M)
Depreciation871M640M263M617M632M580.8M
Other Non Cash Items888M(207M)573M735M251M493.1M
Capital Expenditures379M353M390M480M531M344.9M
Net Income(853M)(14M)570M59M(773M)(811.7M)
End Period Cash Flow883M1.6B1.9B1.5B1.0B1.1B
Investments(112M)(12M)(11M)(495M)(585M)(555.8M)
Net Borrowings425M(7M)(1M)(799M)(900K)(855K)
Change To Netincome(59M)(463M)1.1B309M278.1M345.7M
Change Receivables283M16M(414M)(59M)(53.1M)(55.8M)
Dividends Paid472M(1M)19M72M64.8M61.6M

Alcoa Corp Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alcoa Corp or Metals & Mining sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alcoa Corp's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alcoa stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.05
β
Beta against NYSE Composite3.82
σ
Overall volatility
3.29
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Alcoa Corp Volatility Alert

Alcoa Corp shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Alcoa Corp further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Alcoa Corp future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alcoa Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alcoa Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility

Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.

Alcoa Corp Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Alcoa Corp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alcoa Corp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alcoa Corp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alcoa Corp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Alcoa Corp to competition
FundamentalsAlcoa CorpPeer Average
Return On Equity-0.12-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0016-0.14
Profit Margin(0.06) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.04 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation6.44 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding179.56 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders0.75 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions85.80 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted11.84 M4.71 M
Price To Earning9.32 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.29 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.52 X11.42 X
Revenue10.55 B9.43 B
Gross Profit2.31 B27.38 B
EBITDA277 M3.9 B
Net Income(773 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents1.36 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share8.09 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.81 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.26 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.81 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share23.82 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations91 M971.22 M
Short Ratio2.07 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(3.65) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth(0.29) X4.89 X
Target Price29.02
Number Of Employees13.6 K18.84 K
Beta2.45-0.15
Market Capitalization5.47 B19.03 B
Total Asset14.16 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(1.29 B)9.33 B
Working Capital1.38 B1.48 B
Note: Disposition of 1440 shares by Tammi Jones of Alcoa Corp at 30.67 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Alcoa Corp Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alcoa . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Alcoa Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Alcoa Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total1.7B1.8B1.8B1.6B
Total Assets15.0B14.8B14.2B12.7B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Alcoa Corp in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Healthcare Thematic Idea Now

Healthcare
Healthcare Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Healthcare theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Healthcare Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch
When determining whether Alcoa Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alcoa Corp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alcoa Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alcoa Corp Stock:
Check out Alcoa Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.
Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis

When running Alcoa Corp's price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Portfolio Analyzer
Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Sign In To Macroaxis
Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
CEOs Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.81
Dividend Share
0.4
Earnings Share
(3.65)
Revenue Per Share
59.275
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.