Advance Auto Buy or Sell Recommendation

Macroaxis provides Advance Auto Parts Inc buy hold or sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Advance Auto positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Advance Auto Parts Inc available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. The advice is provided from Advance Auto buy-and-hold prospective. Check also Advance Auto Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with current analyst consensus

Investment Horizon

  

Risk Tolerance

  
Symbol
Execute Advice
Advance Auto Parts Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 89.62  0.39  0.44%

Considering 30-days investment horizon, and your above average risk tolerance our recommendation regarding Advance Auto Parts Inc is 'Strong Sell'.
For the selected time horizon Advance Auto Parts Inc has a mean deviation of 2.18, semi deviation of 1.95, standard deviation of 4.01, variance of 16.1, downside variance of 6.06 and semi variance of 3.78
Macroaxis provides buy, hold, or sell suggestion on Advance Auto Parts to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Advance Auto Parts Inc. Our buy, hold, or sell recommendation engine determines the organization potential to grow exclusively from the prospective of investors current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Advance Auto is not overpriced, please confirm all Advance Auto Parts fundamentals including its Price to Sales, Debt to Equity, Beta, as well as the relationship between Net Income and Short Ratio . Given that Advance Auto Parts has Price to Earning of 17.82 times, we suggest you validate Advance Auto Parts Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to make sure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Returns Distribution Density

Mean Return0.38Value At Risk4.33
Potential Upside2.78Standard Deviation4.01
 Return Density 
      Distribution 

Institutional Investors

Security TypeSharesValue
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares7 M699.2 M
Blackrock IncCommon Shares4.4 M441.1 M
Starboard Value LpCommon Shares3.2 M315 M
State Street CorpCommon Shares3.1 M310.5 M
Artisan Partners Limited PartnershipCommon Shares2.9 M289.9 M
Invesco LtdCommon Shares2.9 M289.5 M
American Century Companies IncCommon Shares2.5 M251.5 M

Advance Auto Greeks

α
Alpha over DOW
=0.4
βBeta against DOW=0.87
σ
Overall volatility
=4.07
 IrInformation ratio =0.0842

Advance Auto Volatility Alert

Advance Auto Parts Inc currently demonstrates below average downside deviation of 2.46. It has Information Ratio of 0.08 and Jensen Alpha of 0.4. However, we do advice investors to further question Advance Auto Parts Inc expected returns to make sure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Advance Auto to competition
FundamentalsAdvance AutoPeer Average
Return On Equity12.63 % (15.17) %
Return On Asset5.23 % (15.64) %
Profit Margin3.91 % (5.5) %
Operating Margin7.44 % (10.91) %
Current Valuation7.38 B152.14 B
Shares Outstanding73.86 M1.43 B
Shares Owned by Insiders0.43 % 6.91 %
Shares Owned by Institutions108.56 % 18.37 %
Number of Shares Shorted7.38 M3.24 M
Price to Earning17.82 times40.69 times
Price to Book2.11 times14.44 times
Price to Sales0.7 times17.81 times
Revenue9.49 B9.85 B
Gross Profit4.26 B21.75 B
EBITDA960.52 M1.41 B
Net Income369.27 M517.71 M
Cash and Equivalents257.23 M3.89 B
Cash per Share3.48 times5.17 times
Total Debt1.04 B7.36 B
Debt to Equity33.3 % 0.72 %
Current Ratio1.48 times3.3 times
Book Value Per Share42.36 times13.64 times
Cash Flow from Operations559.78 M1.25 B
Short Ratio4.47 times2.09 times
Earnings Per Share5.01 times2.3 times
Price to Earnings To Growth1.9 times1.22 times
Number of Employees40 K10.67 K
Beta0.440.34
Market Capitalization6.59 B29.78 B
Total Asset1.97 B126.86 B
Retained Earnings2.02 B38.24 B
Working Capital462.9 M3.58 B
Current Asset1.19 B36.8 B
SellBuy
Strong Sell

Volatility

Hype Condition

Current Valuation

Odds of Distress

Economic Sensitivity

Analyst Consensus

Piotroski F Score

Financial Leverage

   Acquisition by Thomas Okray of 10937 shares of Advance Auto subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Risk Adjusted Performance0.042
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.42)
Mean Deviation2.18
Semi Deviation1.95
Downside Deviation2.46
Coefficient Of Variation1047.93
Standard Deviation4.01
Variance16.1
Information Ratio0.0842
Jensen Alpha0.4032
Total Risk Alpha(0.034172)
Sortino Ratio0.1373
Treynor Ratio(0.43)
Maximum Drawdown20.66
Value At Risk(4.33)
Potential Upside2.78
Downside Variance6.06
Semi Variance3.78
Expected Short fall(2.48)
Skewness3.09
Kurtosis12.65

Current Valuation

Advance Auto Current Valuation Analysis
Advance Auto Parts Inc is rated fifth in current valuation category among related companies. After adjusting for long-term liabilities, total market size of Auto Parts And Components industry is presently estimated at about 86.75 Billion. Advance Auto holds roughly 7.38 Billion in current valuation claiming about 9% of stocks in Auto Parts And Components industry.