Arbor Realty Trust Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ABR Stock | USD 13.20 0.44 3.45% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Arbor Realty Trust is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Arbor Realty buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ABR positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Arbor Realty's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Arbor Realty's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 10.9 | Target Price 16.58 | Hype Value 13.2 | Market Value 13.2 | Naive Value 13.03 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Arbor Realty Trust given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Arbor Realty. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Arbor Realty Trust, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Arbor |
Execute Arbor Realty Buy or Sell Advice
The Arbor recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Arbor Realty Trust. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Arbor Realty Trust or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Arbor Realty's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost neglects market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Hold | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Arbor Realty Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of March 2024 Arbor Realty paid $ 0.43 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Arbor Realty Trust Outperforms Broader Market What You Need to Know |
Arbor Realty Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Arbor Realty's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Arbor Realty's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Arbor Realty daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Arbor Realty Trust price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Arbor Realty returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Arbor Realty.
| Mean Return | -0.08 | Value At Risk | -4.14 | Potential Upside | 3.45 | Standard Deviation | 2.35 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Arbor Realty historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Arbor Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Arbor Realty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arbor Realty Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Arbor Realty's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Arbor Realty's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Mirae Asset Global Investments (korea) Co Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 1.3 M | Melia Wealth Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M | Lsv Asset Management | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.1 M | D. E. Shaw & Co Lp | 2023-09-30 | 1 M | Azora Capital Lp | 2023-12-31 | 983.7 K | Principal Financial Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 981.9 K | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 25.9 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 18.9 M |
Arbor Realty Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 169.9M | 26.4M | 354.3M | 356.9M | 289.0M | 303.5M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (226.5M) | 55.2M | 216.8M | 1.1B | 235.9M | 247.6M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (439.3M) | (218.6M) | (174.7M) | 734.6M | (170.8M) | (162.3M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 115.4M | 149.4M | 227.1M | 321.7M | 380.6M | 399.7M | |
| Net Income | 155.2M | 196.2M | 377.8M | 353.8M | 400.6M | 420.6M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 510.6M | 537.0M | 891.3M | 1.2B | 1.5B | 1.6B | |
| Depreciation | 56.2M | 56.9M | 65.8M | 68.6M | 72.8M | 76.5M | |
| Investments | (992.0M) | (1.2B) | (6.8B) | (2.3B) | 1.9B | 2.0B | |
| Net Borrowings | 484.5M | 792.9M | 2.8B | (542.8M) | (624.2M) | (655.4M) | |
| Change To Netincome | (366.8M) | (180.1M) | (59.9M) | 654.3M | 752.5M | 790.1M |
Arbor Realty Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Arbor Realty or Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Arbor Realty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Arbor stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.87 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Arbor Realty Volatility Alert
Arbor Realty Trust exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.03 and kurtosis of 0.7. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Arbor Realty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Arbor Realty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Arbor Realty Implied Volatility
Arbor Realty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arbor Realty Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arbor Realty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arbor Realty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arbor Realty's options are near their expiration.
Arbor Realty Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Arbor Realty's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Arbor Realty's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Arbor Realty and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Arbor Realty or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Arbor Realty's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arbor Realty by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Arbor Realty to competition |
| Fundamentals | Arbor Realty | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.13 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0244 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.52 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.62 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 14.46 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 189.45 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 2.51 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 66.65 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 72.92 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 10.40 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.93 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 3.20 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 721.01 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 597.94 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.22 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 400.56 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 534.36 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.04 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 9.4 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 4.92 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.91 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 13.18 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 235.86 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 22.44 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.75 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.20 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 14.05 | |
| Number Of Employees | 647 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.95 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 2.5 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 15.74 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 115.22 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.13 % |
Note: Disposition of 2285 shares by Andrew Guziewicz of Arbor Realty at 12.9 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Arbor Realty Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Arbor . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Arbor Realty Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Arbor Realty Trust? Buying financial instruments such as Arbor Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 12.1B | 13.5B | 9.4B | 9.9B | Total Assets | 15.1B | 17.0B | 15.7B | 16.5B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Arbor Realty in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Consumer Funds Thematic Idea Now
Consumer Funds
Funds or Etfs that invest in consumer products such as packaged goods, clothing, food, beverages and retail services. The Consumer Funds theme has 48 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Consumer Funds Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Arbor Realty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Arbor Realty Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arbor Realty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
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When running Arbor Realty's price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arbor Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arbor Realty. If investors know Arbor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arbor Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 1.71 | Earnings Share 1.75 | Revenue Per Share 3.894 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Arbor Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arbor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arbor Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arbor Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arbor Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arbor Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arbor Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arbor Realty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arbor Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.