Arch Capital Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ACGL Stock | USD 93.19 0.59 0.63% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Arch Capital Group is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Arch Capital buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ACGL positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Arch Capital's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Arch Capital's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 99.38 | Target Price 92.29 | Hype Value 93.12 | Market Value 93.19 | Naive Value 94.82 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Arch Capital Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Arch Capital. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Arch Capital Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Arch |
Execute Arch Capital Buy or Sell Advice
The Arch recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Arch Capital Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Arch Capital Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Arch Capital's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Solid | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Slowly supersedes the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Arch Capital Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: RenaissanceRe Earnings Expected to Grow What to Know Ahead of Next Weeks Release |
Arch Capital Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Arch Capital's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Arch Capital's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Arch Capital daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Arch Capital Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Arch Capital returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Arch Capital.
| Mean Return | 0.23 | Value At Risk | -1.48 | Potential Upside | 2.30 | Standard Deviation | 1.24 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Arch Capital historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Arch Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Arch Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arch Capital Group backward and forwards among themselves. Arch Capital's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Arch Capital's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Allspring Global Investments Holdings, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 5.8 M | Marshfield Associates | 2023-09-30 | 5.7 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 5.3 M | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2023-12-31 | 5.2 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 4.5 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 4.2 M | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 3.7 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 3.7 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 3.5 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 40.8 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 27.3 M |
Arch Capital Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 179.1M | 386.8M | 24.2M | (41.4M) | 224.7M | 235.9M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.0B | 2.8B | 3.4B | 3.8B | 5.7B | 6.0B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (392.0M) | (892.6M) | (891.4M) | 804.7M | 1.1B | 1.2B | |
| Capital Expenditures | 37.8M | 39.9M | 41.4M | 51.7M | 52M | 54.6M | |
| Net Income | 1.7B | 1.5B | 2.2B | 1.5B | 4.4B | 4.7B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 903.7M | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 1.6B | |
| Change To Inventory | 695.3M | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.9B | 3.4B | 3.5B | |
| Depreciation | 82.1M | 69.0M | 83.0M | 106.2M | 95M | 99.8M | |
| Investments | 30.1B | (2.9B) | (1.2B) | (3.1B) | (4.9B) | (4.7B) | |
| Change Receivables | (237.8M) | (318.6M) | (685.2M) | (1.1B) | (998.3M) | (948.4M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 253.4M | 218.3M | 200.1M | 659.8M | 758.8M | 425.9M | |
| Change To Netincome | (325.6M) | (821.3M) | (721.7M) | 892.4M | 1.0B | 1.1B |
Arch Capital Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Arch Capital or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Arch Capital's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Arch stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Arch Capital Volatility Alert
Arch Capital Group has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.32 and kurtosis of 1.78. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Arch Capital's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Arch Capital's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Arch Capital Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Arch Capital's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Arch Capital's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Arch Capital and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Arch Capital or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Arch Capital's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arch Capital by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Arch Capital to competition |
| Fundamentals | Arch Capital | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.28 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0419 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.33 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.32 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 35.66 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 375.14 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.00 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 88.79 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 3.53 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.15 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.93 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.48 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 13.36 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 2.85 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 184 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 4.44 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 2.78 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.77 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 2.88 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.23 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.91 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 47.12 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 5.75 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.88 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 11.62 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.24 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 105.64 | |
| Number Of Employees | 6.4 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.57 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 35.18 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 49.67 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 20.3 B | 9.33 B |
| Net Asset | 49.67 B |
Note: Acquisition by David Gansberg of 44528 shares of Arch Capital subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Arch Capital Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Arch . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 12889.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.61) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 93.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 93.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.59) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.07 |
About Arch Capital Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Arch Capital Group? Buying financial instruments such as Arch Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Total Stockholder Equity | 13.5B | 12.9B | 18.4B | 19.3B | Total Assets | 45.1B | 48.0B | 49.7B | 52.2B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Arch Capital in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Health Management
Major hospitals and healthcare providers. The Health Management theme has 46 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Health Management Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Arch Capital Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Arch Capital Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arch Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Arch Stock analysis
When running Arch Capital's price analysis, check to measure Arch Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arch Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Arch Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arch Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arch Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arch Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arch Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.708 | Earnings Share 11.62 | Revenue Per Share 36.979 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.294 | Return On Assets 0.0419 |
The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.