ADTRAN Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ADTN Stock | USD 8.22 0.16 1.99% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your bold attitude towards risk, our recommendation regarding ADTRAN Inc is 'Buy'. Macroaxis provides ADTRAN buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ADTRAN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of ADTRAN's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Real Value 9.81 | Target Price 11 | Hype Value 8.23 | Market Value 8.22 | Naive Value 8.28 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell ADTRAN Inc given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards ADTRAN. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for ADTRAN Inc, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
ADTRAN |
Execute ADTRAN Buy or Sell Advice
The ADTRAN recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on ADTRAN Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in ADTRAN Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute ADTRAN's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Buy
ADTRAN Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| ADTRAN Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ADTRAN Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.03 B. Net Loss for the year was (8.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 327.26 M. | |
| ADTRAN Inc currently holds about 111.9 M in cash with (43.55 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.53. | |
| ADTRAN Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 5th of September 2023 ADTRAN paid $ 0.09 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: OCP-TAP approves Adtrans OSA 5400 TimeCard for precise, resilient data center timing - Adtran NASDAQA - Benzinga |
ADTRAN Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of ADTRAN's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of ADTRAN's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of ADTRAN stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use ADTRAN Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of ADTRAN returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for ADTRAN.
| Mean Return | -0.28 | Value At Risk | -3.58 | Potential Upside | 3.29 | Standard Deviation | 3.01 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of ADTRAN historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
ADTRAN Cash Flow Accounts
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | ||
| Capital Expenditure | (8.11 M) | (9.49 M) | (6.41 M) | (5.67 M) | (17.06 M) | (18.41 M) | |
| Depreciation Amortization and Accretion | 15.89 M | 17.77 M | 16.63 M | 16.08 M | 67.55 M | 72.89 M | |
| Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents | 23.32 M | (30.13 M) | (18.1 M) | 316 K | 64.54 M | 69.63 M | |
| Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares | (3.94 M) | (14.05 M) | 342 K | 6.43 M | 6.9 M | 7.45 M | |
| Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions | (17.27 M) | (17.21 M) | (17.33 M) | (17.53 M) | (22.89 M) | (24.69 M) | |
| Net Cash Flow from Financing | (32.42 M) | (17.87 M) | (42.98 M) | (12.96 M) | 52.94 M | 57.12 M | |
| Net Cash Flow from Investing | 285 K | (9.79 M) | 41.4 M | 10.27 M | 55.83 M | 60.24 M | |
| Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals | 30.44 M | (1.31 M) | 47.81 M | 15.44 M | 28.89 M | 33.5 M | |
| Net Cash Flow from Operations | 55.45 M | (2.47 M) | (16.52 M) | 3.01 M | (44.23 M) | (45.39 M) | |
| Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash | (4.25 M) | (1.6 M) | 4.5 M | (3.68 M) | (12.71 M) | (13.05 M) | |
| Share Based Compensation | 7.16 M | 6.96 M | 6.83 M | 7.48 M | 28.32 M | 30.56 M |
ADTRAN Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to ADTRAN or Communications Equipment sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that ADTRAN's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a ADTRAN stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
ADTRAN Volatility Alert
ADTRAN Inc exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -3.91 and kurtosis of 23.9. However, we advise investors to further study ADTRAN Inc technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure ADTRAN's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact ADTRAN's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.ADTRAN Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing ADTRAN's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze ADTRAN's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between ADTRAN and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as ADTRAN or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of ADTRAN's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ADTRAN by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare ADTRAN to competition |
| Fundamentals | ADTRAN | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.11 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0774 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.05) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.11) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.18 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 78.68 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned by Insiders | 1.57 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned by Institutions | 90.11 % | 39.21 % |
| Number of Shares Shorted | 2.49 M | 4.71 M |
| Price to Earning | 405.00 X | 28.72 X |
| Price to Book | 1.78 X | 9.51 X |
| Price to Sales | 1.83 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.03 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 327.26 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 28.8 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (8.89 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash and Equivalents | 111.9 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash per Share | 1.53 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 143.34 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt to Equity | 0.043 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.67 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 9.98 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow from Operations | (43.55 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.37 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.92) X | 3.12 X |
| Price to Earnings To Growth | 11.04 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 11.0 | |
| Number of Employees | 3.31 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.4 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 646.76 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.88 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 55.34 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 393.78 M | 1.48 B |
Note: ADTRAN exotic insider transaction detected [view details]
About ADTRAN Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell ADTRAN Inc? Buying financial instruments such as ADTRAN Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Receivables | 120.36 M | 169.97 M | 312.27 M | 336.92 M | Inventories | 125.46 M | 139.89 M | 427.53 M | 461.28 M |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having ADTRAN in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Cigarettes Thematic Idea Now
Cigarettes
Tobacco makers and distributors across globe. The Cigarettes theme has 46 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Cigarettes Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out ADTRAN Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
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When running ADTRAN's price analysis, check to measure ADTRAN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADTRAN is operating at the current time. Most of ADTRAN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADTRAN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADTRAN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADTRAN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ADTRAN's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADTRAN listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | Dividend Share 0.36 | Earnings Share (0.92) | Revenue Per Share 17.542 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.903 |
The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ADTRAN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ADTRAN is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADTRAN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.